2009 MLB Draft Wrap Up

June 10, 2009 at 1:57 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, AL Central, AL East, AL West, MLB, NL, NL Central, NL East, NL West

Alright, now that the first round has wrapped up, let’s review, shall we.

Morisato’s Draft Analysis:  Think Mel Kiper, except with less hair.  And more profanity.

First Round

1^st Overall - The Washington Nationals

• Actual Pick:  Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State
• My Pick:  Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State
• Comment:  No surprise here, as Strasburg was clearly the top talent in the draft.  Washington made the right choice and will get a franchise ace to sit on top of their rotation next year (only until he gets free agency delayed an extra year.)  No look for the negotiations to get crazy, with Boras still demanding $50 million for his top talent.

2^nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

• Actual Pick:  Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• My Pick:  Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• Comment:  I’m three for three so far, as Seattle sucks it up and takes Ackley, the best college bat.  He’s going to be playing center for Seattle, where he should be a star.  The comparison that gets thrown about is Grady Sizemore with less power, but a higher average.  Ackley is reportedly looking for Pedro Alvarez money, but with Boras having potentially the top three picks in the draft, Ackley might be the one that gets signed first.  The Strasburg and potentially the Tate negotiations figure to take a lot of his time. 

3^rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

• Actual Pick: Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• My Pick:  Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• Comment:  Four for four after the earlier news about the Pirates (see below).  Tate is a departure for the Padres, who usually prefer safer picks.  However, Tate instantly becomes their second best prospect and has the highest ceiling in the system.  If it all comes together, they potentially have an Andruw Jones type impact player.  Part of the reason why Tate might have been attractive is because of the fact that as a two school player, his bonus will be spread out over several years.  Overall, this is perhaps the riskiest pick in the entire first round, but it was one the Padres had to make.  Don’t expect to see him until 2013 at the earliest, though.

4^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

• Actual Pick:  Tony Sanchez (C), Boston College
• My Pick:  Tony Sanchez (C), Boston College
• Comment:  This was the first pick that we heard confirmed, at around 2:26 Mountain.  Sanchez looks like he’s already agreed to a deal, and should start his career in the minors soon.  This is a bad pick.  It’s not Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters bad, but it still sucks.  Sanchez projects to be a above average defender with power, but he’s not a sure thing to be a starter unless he continues to develop as a hitter.  And even that might not come, because his bat speed is slow.  His upside is Matt Napoli, which is okay, but not what you expect to get with the NUMBER FOUR OVERALL PICK!  One thing is for sure: Sanchez is going to get a lot of love in the Pittsburgh press about how much he loves the game and is motivated by greed.  This is going to make Pedro Alvarez look a lot worse in the eyes of the media and the fan base.  The Pirates draft has to have some signability guys, or they have to sign Miguel Angel Sano in next months’ signing period.  In summary, this is a huge overdraft that was fed by a whole lot of hype (Damn You Peter Gammons!!!!!) and positional scarcity.  The Pirates had better impress later.  In other news, Ryan Doumit probably has maybe two years left in Pittsburgh before he’s traded. 

5^th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

• Actual Pick:  Matt Hobgood (RHP), California High School
• My Pick:  Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• Comment:  Another overdraft, and likely in due in part because the pack of elite high school arms is demanding boatloads of cash.  As I said before, Hobgood has a lot of talent and should become a sort of middle of the rotation workhorse so long as he keeps his weight down.  It’s still fairly high for him to go though.  Look for the Orioles to bust slot in the lower rounds.

6^th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

• Actual Pick:  Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• My Pick:  Grant Green (SS), USC
• Comment:  I love this pick.  The Giants get a potential ace in Wheeler, who has solid velocity and quality offspeed offerings.  What made Wheeler stand out was that he didn’t want ridiculous money to sign, and should land a little above slot.  I stand and applaud the Giants, and the Braves are likely cursing in their draft room, as I believe Wheeler was their guy. 

7^th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

• Actual Pick:  Mike Minor (LHP), Vanderbilt
• My Pick:  Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• Comment:  You know my venom shot toward the Pirates earlier.  I take it all back.  THIS is the worst pick in the first round.    Minor was a late first round talent at worst, maybe in the high 20’s at best.  But he offers so little upside and projects to be a Number Four starter in the majors.  This is probably a signability pick, and the guy the Braves really wanted, Wheeler, just got sniped by the Giants one pick earlier.  But even if you’re afraid of the high school talents, Alex White is still on the board and still much better than Minor.  What the hell? 

8^th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

• Actual Pick:  Mike Leake (RHP), Arizona State
• My Pick:  Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• Comment:  This is an interesting pick, as Leake doesn’t offer very much in terms of upside, but he does have very low bust potential.  He’s also considerable better than Mike Minor, whose selection still stuns me.  All in all, he should reach the big leagues quickly, possibly as soon as late next year.  Overall, it’s fairly solid, and I can’t criticize it all that much.  He also won’t cost a whole lot to sign, which is looking to be the major factor in deciding picks this year outside of the top three.  Detroit has got to be excited, as they’re going to get their choice among the top arms that should have been gone much earlier.  This probably affects the A’s draft plans. 

9^th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

• Actual Pick:  Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• My Pick:  Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• Comment:  The Tigers don’t deviate from my pick here, and they take Turner, one of the top arms available in the draft in the prep level.  Turner hits 98 right now on his fastball and could gain a couple of ticks later in the draft.  He’s going to command a serious bonus, and the Tigers have shown they’ll pay for the right talent.  With picks like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Cameron Maybin, and Andrew Miller, you can’t argue that it hasn’t worked well for them.  Look for Turner to become their top prospect when my prospect roundups come in November. 

10^th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

• Actual Pick:  Drew Storen (RHP), Stanford
• My Pick:  Chad Jenkins (RHP), Kennesaw State
• Comment:  I was all set to make the comment about this being an overdraft, but after stopping myself, I realize that Washington was behind the eight ball with this pick.  They won’t get this pick back because it’s a compensation pick and they had to get someone that will sign for slot.  Storen will probably get shifted into the rotation to maximize his value because of his arsenal.  If he takes to being a starter, this actually could be a very astute pick.  He’s already agreed to terms with the Nationals and will start appearing in box scores soon.

11^th Overall - The Colorado Rockies

• Actual Pick:  Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• My Pick:  Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints
• Comment:  This is an absolute steal here, though the Rockies are going to pay dearly for it.  Matzek is extremely polished and could potentially reach the majors just after he becomes old enough to drink.  With reports that he began to touch the high 90’s at the end of the year, plus with two off-speed pitches that could be plus pitches, Matzek deserved to get taken at least five spots earlier.  This is potentially another case where the Rockies just drafted their top prospect for next year.

12th Overall - The Kansas City Royals

• Actual Pick:  Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• My Pick:  Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Comment:  A very good pick, and one that will thrill the hometown crowd (Crow went to Missouri).  Crow should translate his velocity and slider into results soon, and he should rise quickly to the big show.  All in all, next year’s Kansas City Rotation looks fairly promising (Greinke, Crow, Meche, and Hochevar).  While there was talk about Crow wanting a lot of money, he doesn’t have a lot of leverage and will probably take something close to what Washington offered last year. 

13th Overall - The Oakland Athletics

• Actual Pick:  Grant Green (SS), USC
• My Pick:  Mike Leake (RHP), Arizona State
• Comment:  Not a huge surprise, as I had the A’s taking Green in the previous mock.  Overall, Green gives the A’s their potential shortstop of the future that should be starting for the A’s in 2011.  Green has been inconsistent, but I’ve come around to the theory that a lot of the hate toward Green might have been because of too lofty expectations.  While he shouldn’t be a superstar, he should at least be a very good shortstop.  The big question now is, does Texas take Shelby Miller, who I’ve had them taking for at least a couple of drafts, Alex White, the top college arm left, or a toolsy outfielder?  We’ll find out shortly…

14th Overall - The Texas Rangers

• Actual Pick:  Matthew Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• My Pick:  Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• Comment:  Oh. My. God.  This was considerably unexpected, and a pick that I’m kind of leery on, because of Purke’s delivery.  Quite simply, I’m afraid it will be Blake Beavan all over again.  Kevin Goldstein rates him as arguably the best lefty prep pitcher in the draft, and calls it a borderline steal.  Simply put, it’s a good pick, and very unexpected.  Those are going to be some very interesting negotiations between the Rangers and Scott Boras in the coming months, especially when they inform him that in no way is Purke getting a Rick Porcello deal.  It’s probably not the pick I would have made, but the Rangers have shown before that they have balls about the size of cantaloupes when it comes to evaluating and acquiring talent.  The upside is considerable, as is the risk.

15^th Overall - The Cleveland Indians

• Actual Pick:  Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• My Pick:  Eric Arnett (RHP), Indiana
• Comment:  A steal here, as the Indians get a guy I thought was the second best college arm for much of the year.  White has quality stuff and gets a lot of groundballs as well, similar to Cliff Lee.  White likely won’t be in the Indians’ rotation next year, but should arrive in time for when the next Cleveland youth movement takes the field.  Update:  I am less excited with this pick after reports right after the first day that Cleveland was going to move him to the bullpen.  My reaction was, What The Hell?!  White has quality stuff, and if you didn’t think he would be a good starting pitcher, then why the fuck did you pick him?  I hope this is wrong, otherwise, it’s a waste, similar to the Mariners deciding to convert Brandon Morrow into a closer one season in.

16th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks

• Actual Pick:  Brian Bochering (3B), Florida High School
• My Pick:  Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• Comment:  Borchering might not be a third baseman in the end, but he should be quite good as a hitter.  He’s also fairly signable as well, and won’t go crazy.  It’s a good pick, and one that indicates where the Diamondbacks are going.  Not a bad pick, and it possibly signals an ending to this current crop of Diamondbacks.  The Snakes look like they’re going to be loading up on younger prep talent that will develop together for their next run.  The next pick should be a pitcher, quite possibly Shelby Miller.

17th Overall - Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation From The Los Angeles Dodgers For Orlando Hudson)

• Actual Pick:  Allen Pollack (CF), Notre Dame
• My Pick:  Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia
• Comment:  This is rather high for Pollack, who was a back of the first round guy at best.  This sniffs a little of a signability case, as he’ll probably take slot.  The question is whether or not the Diamondbacks are going to have him at second or centerfield.  If it’s at second, it’s a sign that he’ll be the successor to Orlando Hudson.  If it’s in center, Chris Young might have to watch his back. 

18^th Overall - The Florida Marlins

• Actual Pick:  Chad James (RHP), Oklahoma High School
• My Pick:  Chad James (RHP), Oklahoma High School
• Comment:  I’ve gotten six right in this draft, which beats my total from last year.  James is a good pick, giving the Marlins a groundball lefty with quality stuff.  He actually should have been mentioned up there with some of the top names in the draft, but wasn’t.  All in all, it’s a nice pick, and one that will pay dividends for the Marlins, who can just churn out pitching.   

19th Overall - The St. Louis Cardinals

• Actual Pick:  Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• My Pick:  Mike Minor (LHP), Vanderbilt
• Comment:  Outstanding pick here, and one that gives the Cardinals a higher ceiling prospect than what they are used to getting.  Miller offers the Cardinals a pitcher that projects to be a front of the rotation guy.  His delivery might have to be smoothed over a bit, but he should be a great pick up in time.  And with Miller gone, the last of the elite high school arms gets taken, far later than I thought he’d got.

 20th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays

• Actual Pick:  Chad Jenkins (RHP), Kennesaw State
• My Pick:  Rex Brothers (LHP), Lipscomb
• Comment:  Nothing outstanding here.  Jenkins is a good groundball pitcher that offers little bust potential and should arrive very quickly.  Fairly vanilla, and typically what you’d expect for Toronto, though they have gotten great results from their drafts in recent years.

 21st Overall - The Houston Astros

• Actual Pick:  Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School

• My Pick:  Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School

• Comment:  I mentioned Mier as an option and actually debated about changing the pick to him last minute.  However, this is a great pickup for the Astros, who now have their shortstop of the future in Mier.  He should hit enough to bat second in the batting order, and will give the Astros flashbacks of when Adam Everett played for them.  Very good pickup.

 22nd Overall - The Minnesota Twins

• Actual Pick:  Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• My Pick:  Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• Comment:  Huh?  This is rather surprising, but really, it should have been fairly obvious, as Gibson is very much their type of player.  Gibson gives the Twins dependability when he’s healthy, and will settle in nicely as a middle of the rotation guy.  It’s a great value pick here, and one that won’t cost much beyond slot.

 23rd Overall - The Chicago White Sox

• Actual Pick:  Jared Mitchell (CF), LSU
• My Pick:  Mike Trout (CF), New Jersey High School
• Comment:  This is probably the highest he would go, but it’s a solid pick.  Mitchell offers the White Sox tons of upside and will likely be developed to hopefully become the successor to Jermaine Dye.  All in all, the White Sox are hoping to rebuild their outfield internally with Jordan Danks and Mitchell, with Carlos Quentin in left.  That’s a pretty potential outfield if all works out well, and one we could see as soon as 2011.

24th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Mets For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Actual Pick:  Randall Grichuk (OF), Texas High School
• My Pick:  Reymond Fuentes (CF), Puerto Rican High School
• Comment:  This one is a stunner, and one that I didn’t see coming. Hold on, I have to research this one.  Update (Thanks To Keith Law):  Grichuk is a high school hitter with some power, but he also is limited to a corner and his power potential itself is somewhat limited.  I’m disappointed. 

25th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Yankees For Mark Teixeira)

• Actual Pick:  Mike Trout (CF), New Jersey High School
• My Pick:  Drew Storen (RHP), Stanford
• Comment:  Excellent pick here, as Trout offers the Angels a up the middle impact talent in centerfield.  Trout might not become a star, but he should become a big contributor to a team due to his speed and contact ability. 

26th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers

• Actual Pick:  Eric Arnett (RHP), Indiana
• My Pick:  Everett Williams (CF), Texas High School
• Comment:  Trout might have been their guy, but Arnett is an excellent pick.  He offers high class stuff, but he’s also had some huge workloads that are concerning.  The Brewers should probably be use him in relief for the remainder of the year as a way of monitoring it.  Still, Arnett offers the Brewers a guy that should offer a lot more upside than the current cast of misfits behind Yovani Gallardo. 

27th Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation From The Philadelphia Phillies For Raul Ibanez)

• Actual Pick:  Nick Franklin (SS), Florida High School
• My Pick:  Kyle Heckathorn (RHP), Kennesaw State
• Comment:  This is a surprising pick, as Franklin was relatively unknown until close to the draft.  And even then, no one thought he’d be a first round pick.  Franklin will probably sign for slot, and while he does do a lot of things well, he’s not a special player in any sort of way.  Color me underwhelmed.  One thing that should be watched for soon is where Tanner Scheppers goes, as he’s approaching the two big spenders in the league.  Will the Red Sox take Scheppers or pick Stassi?  We’ll find out soon enough…

28th Overall - The Boston Red Sox

• Actual Pick:  Reymond Fuentes (CF), Puerto Rican High School
• My Pick:  Max Stassi (C), California High School
• Comment:  Neither!  The Red Sox had coveted Fuentes with this pick, but there was a lot of smoke that he was going to the Angels.  Instead, he lands right in their lap.  Though he’s not the player his cousin is, he’s still a talent that offers a ton of upside and can be a minor star if his tools all come together.  Good pick, and one that allows them to take some high ceiling talents in the later rounds.  Back to the Scheppers question, will the Yankees pull the trigger on him, or will they go after some other falling talents, namely Rex Brothers or Everett Williams?  Let’s find out…

30th Overall - The New York Yankees (Compensation For Gerrit Cole)

• Actual Pick:  Slade Heathcott (CF/RHP), Texas High School
• My Pick:  Matthew Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• Comment:  I’m not surprised, as Heathcott does have first round tools, but the background troubles people.  Still, the Yankees get an impact talent that will require a lot of patience.  The bust potential is high, but the upside is significant.  The only thing is, with his family history and all, will he get overwhealmed by the media attention that comes with Yankee prospects?  We’ll have to see.

 29th Overall - The Tampa Bay Rays

• Actual Pick:  LeVon Washingon (OF), Florida High School
• My Pick:  Mat Hobgood (RHP), California High School
• Comment:  I completely whiffed on Washington, who I didn’t think would go in the first round.  Proved me wrong.  Washington has excellent speed, and some raw power.  He could be an impact centerfielder in time.  However, his swing is a mess and will have to be cleaned up if he’s going to hit consistently, which I’m not sure he’ll do.  That speed though is enticing.

31st Overall - The Chicago Cubs

• Actual Pick:  Brett Jackson (CF/RHP), Cal
• My Pick:  A.J. Pollock (2B/CF), Notre Dame
• Comment:  This is a lot higher than where he deserved to go.  Jackson is raw, and offers a lot of upside, but there have been a lot of disturbing questions about how much power he has, how bad his plate discipline is, and whether or not he can stay in center.  This could be a bust.   

32nd Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation From The Los Angeles Angels For Brian Fuentes)

• Actual Pick:  Tim Wheeler (OF), Sacramento State
• My Pick:  Tim Wheeler (OF), Sacramento State
• Comment:  I got another one right.  Wheeler has a lot of upside and could be an above average center or corner outfielder when it’s all said and done.   

Supplemental First-Round Picks

33^rd Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation For Raul Ibanez)

• Actual Pick:  Stephen Baron (C), Florida High School
• My Pick:  Stephen Baron (C), Florida High School
• Comment:  Baseball Prospectus heard right on this one.  While there were certainly better catchers available, Jack Z (not attempting to spell his name) has had good success in the draft in the past.  All in all, we’ll see how this one goes in a couple of years. 

34^th Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation For Brian Fuentes)

• Actual Pick:  Rex Brothers (LHP), Lipscomb
• My Pick:  James Paxton (LHP), Kentucky)
• Comment:  The Rockies are cleaning up in the draft, as they get a college pitcher with two above average pitches that profiles as a middle of the rotation guy or better.  I had him going to Toronto earlier, but this is a bit of a steal here. 

35^th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Orlando Hudson)

• Actual Pick:  Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• My Pick:  Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• Comment:  Good pick here, as Davidson has a chance to stay at third and has a very good bat.  Good power, above average contact ability.  Not much to criticize here as Arizona continues to add quality talent to the farm. 

36^th Overall - The Los Angeles Dodgers (Compensation For Derek Lowe)

• Actual Pick:  Aaron Miller (OF/LHP), Baylor
• My Pick:  Slade Heathcott (CF/RHP), Texas High School
• Comment:  Not a bad pick.  Miller is a recent convert to pitching, where he showed good velocity and the potential for good breaking stuff.  Given time and development, he could be a fairly good starting pitcher, or at the very least, a excellent relief pitcher. 

37^th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays (Compensation For A.J. Burnett)

• Actual Pick:  James Paxton (LHP), Kentucky
• My Pick:  Jared Mitchell (OF), LSU
• Comment:  Lefties that hit mid 90’s don’t last long, and while Paxton tanked at the end of the year (ironically after he named Scott Boras his representative), he didn’t fall too far.  Toronto will have some fun negotiating Paxton’s value, but Toronto’s done a fine job of developing pitchers in recent years, so I think Paxton will likely break Kentucky’s curse on starting pitchers.

38^th Overall - The Chicago White Sox (Compensation For Orlando Cabrera)

• Actual Pick:  Josh Phegley (C), Indiana
• My Pick:  Brett Jackson (CF/RHP), Cal
• Comment:  This is an overdraft.  Phegley can swing the stick, making solid contact and generating power, but he’s a bad defensive catcher that won’t stick behind the plate.  There are also questions as to whether his power will translate to wood.  I suppose first base could be an option, but that’s only if the power translates.  Meh.

39^th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation For CC Sabathia)

• Actual Pick:  Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee
• My Pick:  Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• Comment:  Thought to be a potential first round pick, Davis had a subpar season in which he probably should have headed back to school.  Davis can hit, and potentially could be a leadoff left fielder, as he is not a centerfielder in the end.  To be honest, this was a questionable pick, as Davis has a lot of leverage here, and he’s going to cost an arm and a leg to sign thanks to the Boras factor. 

40^th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For Mark Teixeira)

• Actual Pick:  Tyler Skaggs (LHP), California High School
• My Pick:  Luke Bailey (C), Georgia High School
• Comment:  Love this pick, as Skaggs easily was just behind the elite first round arms earlier in the year.  The Angels should develop him into something of quality.  All in all, this is a fairly nice pick to get here in the sandwich round. 

41^st Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Juan Cruz)

• Actual Pick:  Chris Owings (SS), South Carolina High School
• My Pick:  Trent Stevenson (RHP), Arizona High School
• Comment:  Kurt Stillwell isn’t a comparison you want tossed around too much in the first round.  Owings can hit for average and walk, but he has very little power, nor does he have a chance to stay at shortstop.  This might have been a money pick, due to the Diamondbacks having budgetary constraints due to the amount of picks they have.  Their draft has been pretty good so far, so I’ll give them a pass.

42^nd Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Actual Pick:  Garrett Richards (RHP), Oklahoma
• My Pick:  Sam Dyson (RHP), South Carolina
• Comment:  Richards is probably a reliever in the end, as while he can touch the mid 90’s and flash a good breaking ball, he doesn’t have much of an idea of where it’s going.  My guess is that he gets converted at some point in the future. 

43^rd Overall - The Cincinnati Reds (Compensation For Jeremy Affeldt)

• Actual Pick:  Brad Broxberger (RHP), USC
• My Pick:  Will Myers (C), North Carolina High School
• Comment:  Broxberger is a solid pick here by the Reds, though he has some risk.  If his control doesn’t continue to improve, he’s likely bullpen bound to minimize the damage.  His stuff would play well there, though.  The Reds have had some good success with arms lately, so they might be able to help him reach his ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter.   

44^th Overall - The Texas Rangers (Compensation For Milton Bradley)

• Actual Pick:  Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints
• My Pick:  Tyler Skaggs (LHP), California High School
• Comment:  Purke might be the big signing bonus guy that the Rangers are picking, but Scheppers has the potential to be a huge steal in this draft.  Thought to potentially be the top college pitcher last year, Scheppers instead had a shoulder injury that he rehabbed.  His stuff is still electric, but the shoulder worries some.  He also wants a lot of money, but like Crow, Scheppers has little leverage.  Expect to see a $2 million bonus for Scheppers, and the Rangers will call it a day. 

45^th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Brandon Lyon)

• Actual Pick:  Mike Belfiore (LHP), Boston College
• My Pick:  Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State
• Comment:  Belfiore is the player I nominate to most likely have his arm explode, as he threw 9.2 shutout innings of relief in that infamous 25 inning game against Texas.  Belfiore is regarded to have the potential to be a starter.  He throws in the low 90’s, and has a slider and a changeup that are regarded to be average pitches.  The Diamondbacks will probably shut him down for a while, as he’s had some huge workloads in the past.

 46^th Overall - The Minnesota Twins (Compensation For Dennys Reyes)

• Actual Pick:  Matthew Bashore (LHP), Indiana
• My Pick:  Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Comment:  This is fairly under the radar, as Bashore throws in the low 90’s.  I wouldn’t doubt it if Bashore wound up being an All-Star.  The Twins are just so damn hard to predict.

47^th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation For Brian Shouse)

• Actual Pick:  Kyle Heckathorn (RHP), Kennesaw State
• My Pick:  Colton Cain (LHP/1B), Texas High School
• Comment:  Heckathorn has top of the rotation stuff with a mid 90’s fastball and a hard slider that gave him a solid out pitch.  However, inconsistency, mechanics, and the lack of a third pitch dropped him to the compensation round.  Milwaukee will probably turn him into a reliever, which might be for the best. 

48^th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For The Shittiness Of Jon Garland)

• Actual Pick:  Tyler Kerher (LHP), Eastern Illinois
• My Pick:  Victor Black (RHP), Dallas Baptist
• Comment:  Tony Romo’s alma matter gets a guy taken. Kerher has good control and a starters frame.  His still is average, and he could develop into a back of the rotation starter.  His stats look good, but he pitched against lesser competition.  This is higher than where he should have gone, to be frank.

49^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates (Compensation For Not Signing Tanner Scheppers In 2008)

• Actual Pick:  Victor Black (RHP), Dallas Baptist
• My Pick:  Brad Broxberger (RHP), USC
• Comment:  Off by one, but Black is a good signing here for the Pirates, who also had to watch out for signability, as they aren’t getting this pick back if they fail to sign him.  However, small school right handers with velocity are hard to find, and while Black is a project, he does merit the pick here because of his upside.  Good pick by Pittsburgh, and one that also won’t cost a whole lot either.

 Surprises And Bargains

Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Seattle Mariners
• Comment:  Poythress is a bargain here, as he brings huge power to the Mariners’ farm system and likely won’t take long to get there.  If his defense regresses, he can always DH.  Good pickup.

Everett Williams (CF), Texas High School

• Selected:  2^nd Round, San Diego Padres
• Comment:  Williams looked like a first rounder, but the falling of the high school arms and his size hurt him.  Still, good pick here by San Diego, who get a quality centerfield prospect that will be ready sooner than Tate will be. 

Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Detroit Tigers
• Comment:  Oliver looked like a first round pick, and I believe I actually had Detroit taking him in the early mock drafts.  However, inconsistency and the disappearance of his breaking ball had him falling here.  He’s a good value pick here, though because of the Boras factor, he is going to cost a pretty penny.  Still, it’s worth it.

Brooks Pounders (RHP), California High School

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Comment:  Pounders doesn’t have the huge velocity you would expect from a kid his size, but he has four pitches that he throws for strikes.  His mechanics are good and he’s a massive guy in a Jonathan Broxton type of way.  He’s not an ace, but he’s one of those guys that can contribute day in and day out, a la Brad Radke.

Mychal Givens (RHP), Florida High School

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Baltimore Orioles
• Comment:  Givens goes probably where he should go, which is a surprise considering he was thought to have been a first round talent at the beginning of the draft season.  The Orioles are going to develop him as a starter, where he should become a very good one in time.

Robert Stock (C), USC

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Cardinals
• Comment:  Stock hasn’t had the season that people expected from him, and looked awful as a catcher, where he couldn’t hit.  Stock actually had second round value as a pitcher, where he touched the mid 90’s with a good curveball.  But the Cardinals are going to try him as a catcher, which he prefers.  Okay then.

Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M

• Selected: 2^nd Round, Boston Red Sox
• Comment:  Interesting pick for Boston, depending on what they decide to do with Wilson.  Do they start him or let him stay as a reliever?  Wilson has great value either way, so it’s a bit of a toss up.  Boston has a tremendous player development system, so Wilson might have some hope yet of being that ground ball starting pitcher. 

D.J. LeMahieu (SS), Louisiana State

• Selected:  2^nd Round, Chicago Cubs
• Comment:  An odd pick here, considering the other talent still on the board (Robbie Shields would have been perfect).  The Cubs have had good success with guys from LSU, so LaMahieu might bolt the Tigers to sign with the Cubs.  My only issue is where the Cubs will play him.  He’s not s shortstop, his bat plays at second, but he’s far too big to play there, nor does he hit for the power to play third.  This should be interesting to see. 

Will Myers (C), North Carolina High School

• Selected:  3^rd Round, Kansas City Royals
• Comment:  Myers goes far lower than what I would have thought.  The kid can hit, but will likely have to move out from behind the bag.  He’s going to cost some, but Kansas City must have a good idea of how much it will take to sign him. 

Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State

• Selected:  3^rd Round, Minnesota Twins
• Comment:  Tootle was a star as a closer in the Cape, but a stomach virus helped wreck his season.  The Twins will probably help him develop into a starter, where he could become very good.

Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern

• Selected:  3^rd Round, New York Mets
• Comment:  I gotta hand it to the Mets, I like this pick.  Shields isn’t a shortstop, but he projects to be an offensive second baseman, which they don’t have many of. 

Keyvius Sampson (RHP), Florida High School

• Selected:  4^th Round, San Diego Padres
• Comment:  Not a bad pick up here, getting a live arm that could become a power starter or reliever.  Pitching in San Diego will help him a lot. 

Jason Stoffel  (RHP), Arizona State

• Selected:  4^th Round, San Francisco Giants
• Comment:  Good value here, as Stoffel was thought to go in the second.  He should be one of the elite relievers in the NL West in a couple of years. 

Max Stassi (C), California High School

• Selected:  4^th Round, Oakland Athletics
• Comment:  A solid pick here, and one that would add a high impact catching talent to Oakland’s farm system.  He’s going to cost a lot, but I don’t think Oakland would have picked him here if they weren’t sure they could sign him.

Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami

• Selected:  5^th Round, St. Louis Cardinals
• Comment:  St. Louis gets the all glove, no hit shortstop.  It’s like Khalil Greene, only cheaper!  The Hurricanes are hoping the Cardinals sign him, as they need to make way for Harold Martinez, their top prospect from last year.

 Matt Graham (RHP), Texas High School

• Selected:  6^th Round, San Francisco Giants
• Comment:  I’m loving the Giants’ draft.  Graham was thought to be a potential first round pick until he began to experience dead arm.  However, he’s a one pitch pitcher and might just honor his North Carolina commitment.  Not a bad risk here. 

Ruben Sierra Jr. (CF), Puerto Rican High School

• Selected:  6^th Round, Texas Rangers
• Comment:  Yes, it’s the son of that Ruben Sierra.  Sierra is pretty much a copy of his Dad, and the Rangers usually try to do right by sons of former players.  Look for this one to happen, as Sierra is probably better off joining a major league team instead of going to school.

 Colton Cain (LHP), Texas High School

• Selected:  8^th Round, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Comment:  Cain is a high ceiling armed that could turn into a power arm in the rotation, though there are some that like him as a first baseman.  However, large bonus demands, some mechanical concerns and a commitment to Texas dropped him here.  He’d be a quality arm to pick up, as I had him going in the supplemental round.  He’s raw and would cost a lot, but would add more depth to what has been a interesting Pirates draft.l

Deven Marrero (SS), Florida High School

• Selected:  20^th Round, Cincinnati
• Comment:  He’s heading to college.  No way he signs at this low of a selection, though he will probably be in my first round projections for 2012.  Provided the world doesn’t end, courtesy of the Mayan Calender.

 And with that, I’m signing off.  It’s a good draft, and the Rangers Report will have a wrap up of the Rangers’ draft on Friday.  Other than that, enjoy the wrap up, and look for my Top 30 2010 Draft Prospects to come out in August, after the signing deadline passes.  Other than that, hope you all enjoyed this write up as much as I enjoyed writing it.

Comments (8)

Morisato’s 2009 MLB Mock Draft - Final Pre-Draft Version

June 8, 2009 at 11:43 am · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, AL Central, AL East, AL West, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinatti Reds, Cleveland Indians, College World Series, Colorado Rockies

With the draft tomorrow, it’s time for one final mock draft. 

2009 MLB Mock Draft - Final Edition

1^st Overall - The Washington Nationals

• Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Strasburg has remained at the top of the draft for the entire season and has posted one of the greatest pitching seasons in college baseball.  Strasburg has a strong pitchers build, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, touching 100 on occasions.  His fastball has good movement on it as well.  He keeps his velocity deep into games, and his command is solid.  He also has two other quality pitches in his changeup and his slider.  He has great command over his stuff and has a great mound presence.  However, there are some red flags coming up on Strasburg recently, mainly in his mechanics and pitching motion.  Driveline Mechanics did a study on Strasburg, and found his mechanics to be troubling.  The comparison that they came up with was of Mark Prior, which isn’t a great comp to pull up.  They predict that he’ll probably lose velocity in time, and eventually have to have a major shoulder injury.  Overall, he could probably start now in the majors and would likely begin the season in the Nationals rotation in 2010 after they’ve delayed his free agency.  The Nationals have all but said he’s there guy, so now the negotiations with Scott Boras figure to be the fodder for columnists talking about the greed of MLB Draft, as opposed to the NFL Draft (even though the contract of Matthew Stafford alone will dwarf the combined amount Texas, Boston, and Both New York Teams will spend on the draft.)

 2^nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

• Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Ackley is all but a lock as the second overall pick, as he’s been by far the best hitter in college baseball.  Ackley has got excellent plate discipline and speed, all the while showing some considerable power this season.  The major question with Ackley was whether or not he was capable of playing centerfield, as he was recovering from Tommy John Surgery.  Those questions were answered as Ackley began appearing in center at the end of the year, where he showed the range and speed to play center.  His arm should be average, though reports are that it wasn’t much to begin with.  He would be a 20/20 guy as a left fielder, but a borderline star in center field.  . 

 3^rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

• Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• There has been a lot of smoke in terms of Tate going to San Diego, due to San Diego lacking impact talent and the fact that Grady Fuson is very much enamored with Tate’s potential.  Tate has all the tools to be a five tool talent in centerfield.  He’s got great speed, great power potential and superb athleticism.  Many believe that he could become a superstar centerfielder, the likes of which the Pirates have never had before.  There are three large problems with Tate.  The first is that he’s extremely raw, and thus has a lot of risk.  Second, his agent is Scott Boras, who reportedly wants Tate to have a huge contract.  Lastly, he’s committed to North Carolina, not only to baseball, but also to play football, giving him more leverage.  The other option here could be San Diego deciding to pick Aaron Crow, who could rise quickly through the system   Tentatively, we’ll go with Tate, who would give the Padres not only a high ceiling talent, but if they fail to sign him, would allow for them to have two first round picks next year.

 4^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

• Tony Sanchez (C), Boston College
• Previous Mock:  Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• According to John Perlotto, it looks like the Pirates may wind up punting on this pick, though for a different reason than past Pirates drafts.  The Pirates may try to save some money on their first round pick this year in order to offer more of a bonus to Miguel Sano, the top international talent from the Dominican.  Right now, it looks like the Pirates will be taking Tony Sanchez, from what buzz is being tossed about by Keith Law.  In my opinion, that would be an incredible overdraft.  Sanchez is a solid defender with great power potential, and the ability to take a walk.  However, he also won’t hit for a high average and will probably strike out quite a bit.  In other words, consider him similar to Mike Napoli.  At the very worst, Sanchez would make an excellent backup.  Which is NOT what you want with the fourth overall pick, but the Pirates are up to something and are likely pooling their resources for something bigger, be it the international market or some slot busting in the lower rounds.  Update:  Sanchez Has Agreed To Terms

 5^th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

• Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats

• Previous Mock:  Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School

• The big winner would be the Orioles, who in this scenario benefit from the Pirates’ thriftiness and get one of the top arms in this draft not named Strasburg.  Crow showed some rust early on, but has come on as of late, and shown that his stuff is still there.  I’ve used to think that his delivery makes him a ticking time bomb, but he does repeat the delivery well.  The success of pitchers like Tim Lincecum has made it a bit easier to take a shot on guys with unusual deliveries.  Crow has great stuff.  He throws a fastball with good movement that clocks in the high 90’s.  He couples it with a bastard slider and a changeup that rates around average.  He pounds the strike zone, but his command is a bit off because of his funky delivery.  Still, the tools are there for him to be a potential big leaguer, possibly a good two, or even a one if the changeup and command improve.  This is a borderline steal here.

 6^th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

• Grant Green (SS), USC
• Previous Mock:  Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• The Giants have been connected with several prep arms, but reportedly, they prefer a bat, being connected with Tim Wheeler.  That’s a bit of an overdraft, but with Grant Green still on the board, and still regarded to be the second best positional player, why not slide him here.  As a hitter, Green shows a good swing, some power, and average plate discipline.  His fielding has been the real concern, as Green has at times shown the potential of being a excellent defender with good range and soft hands.  However, he’s also shown he can be god-awful this season, which creates further questions to his stock.  He’s a capable athlete, and it’s possible he could transition to centerfield.  However, there is risk to that, and that hasn’t been the Padres M.O. this season.  Since there is considerable smoke here from Keith Law and Baseball America, I’m going with the Green pick here, though if I really had to make a choice here, I personally would pick one of the college starters.

7^th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

• Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock: Same
• Zack Wheeler is a power pitcher that ranks among the elite of the prep pitchers in this draft.  Wheeler throws in he low 90’s, touching 96 at times, with good life.  He has a curveball that is a plus pitch.  He also has a changeup, but it’s crude and needs work.  He’s got some kink to his delivery, but he repeats it well and could be smoothed over a bit to make it work.  However, he’s got projection and his delivery really isn’t all that bad.  All in all, he could be an excellent pitcher in time.  It’s a toss up between Miller, Matzek and Wheeler here.  I’ll say that the Braves go with the local kid here, though this could go either way.

 8^th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

• Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• Previous Mock: Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• At this point, the Reds are probably doing backflips at this point.  Matzek is arguably the top prep pitcher in the draft, interchangeable with Shelby Miller or Zach Wheeler.  At six three, he shows lots of projection, but already has three pitches that project to be above average pitches.  He throws around 92, and has touched 98 several times in the past couple of weeks, all while mixing in a curveball that is a borderline plus pitch.  He also shows a solid slider and an idea of a changeup.  Overall, he’s a solid young pitcher that is fairly polished and should rise rather quickly.  This is the lowest I expect him to go. 

9^th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

• Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• Previous Mock:  Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints
• This is a tough pick to decide on, as the Tigers need to decide if they are going to continue trying to contend with their current group or blowing it up and starting over.  The Tigers typically favor power prospects, so the choice is narrowed here to the top college starter left (White), the top independent arm (Tanner Scheppers), and the top two remaining prep prospects, Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner.  In my opinion, the Tigers will probably go with Turner, who has been touching 98 on his fastball in his most recent outings.  He’s got the power frame to support the fastball, and also has a curveball and a changeup that project to be above average.  He’s got solid command and a nice, easy delivery. If they really want to continue possible ideas of contention, they’ll probably pop Scheppers, though Scheppers hasn’t pitched enough to make me comfortable picking him here.

 10^th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

• Chad Jenkins (RHP), Kennesaw State
• Previous Mock:  Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• There’s also been a lot of smoke signals stating not only that the Nats might go signability, but they are looking for someone close to the majors.  A lot of those signals, in particular Keith Law, have fingered Jenkins as that guy.  Jenkins is a guy built like a barrel that throws a sinker that clocks in the low 90’s.  He couples it with a good slider and a changeup that is straight as an arrow.  He’s a bit raw and there is some kink to his delivery, due to his working at a smaller school.  However, he could be a middle of the rotation horse that could be durable as hell.  If he gets popped here, he’ll likely sign quickly, with the Nationals hoping to fast track him for him to combine with Jordan Zimmerman and Strasburg.

 11^th Overall - The Colorado Rockies

• Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints
• Previous Mock:  Matthew Purke (RHP), Texas High School
• The reports are looking good in terms of Scheppers making a comeback from arm and labrum surgery.  From the early buzz going on, he should get picked at or around the top ten.  Because the Padres have kinda shifted my rankings, Scheppers gets taken by the Tigers or here, by Colorado.  Scheppers flashes mid 90’s velocity as well as a good curve and changeup, but overall aside form recovering from the procedure, he’ll have to find a way to repeat his delivery to help his command and control.  While there isn’t enough data for him to get take in the Top 10, it’s around here that I would stop worrying about it and just trust in the stuff.

12th Overall - The Kansas City Royals

• Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Jared Mitchell (OF), LSU
• White has had a bit of a rough stretch this season, the stuff is still there.  White throws in the low 90’s and is able to touch 95.  Also in his favor is that his fastball has plenty of sink to it.  He throws a slider that is just as effective.  Where his problem lies is in his curveball, which he clearly isn’t comfortable with using.  He also has a changeup, but also doesn’t use it much as well either.  White works quickly and his delivery is solid, though he does have some issues with command at times.  There are some questions if he’s an ace, but overall, he should at least be a solid Number Two. 

 13th Overall - The Oakland Athletics

• Mike Leake (RHP), Arizona State
• Previous Mock:  Grant Green (SS), USC
• One of the top pitching prospects in this draft, Leake is fairly solid.  He has exceptional command over his stuff, which is how he’s had such success at ASU.  His fastball clocks in the high 80’s-early 90’s, with excellent movement that allows it to be more effective than it should be.  He has a solid curve that has late break, and a changeup that gives him a weapon against lefties.  He also has a slider, but it’s probably his worst pitch.  He’s fairly athletic (he also plays the outfield every once in a while) and his delivery is compact.  Overall, he should go toward the end of the first round.  He doesn’t have much upside, or development, but he should contribute in a short time. He’d add quality depth to the A’s, and he could contribute rather quickly for the Baby Athletics.

 14th Overall - The Texas Rangers

• Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock:  Matthew Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• Texas has been on Miller, even dispatching Nolan Ryan to watch one of his starts.  In this scenario, Miller probably falls to the Rangers, who will waste no time in taking him.  Miller is a solid young pitcher who shows excellent stuff.  His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, touching 96 with some sink.  He also throws a curveball with good movement and throws a raw changeup as well.  However, his command is below average and he rushes his delivery a bit, according to Keith Law.  There is also a little violence to his delievery as well.  However, he’s got a power pitcher’s frame, and has room to add more mass, and possibly add velocity, as he gets older.  Overall, he’s not a bad pick here, and getting him here would make the Rangers’ draft.  If Miller is gone, the Rangers are also reportedly scouting Reymond Fuentes, Carlos Beltran’s cousin, fairly hard as well, along with Matthew Purke and his delusions of millions in bonuses.

 15^th Overall - The Cleveland Indians

• Eric Arnett (RHP), Indiana
• Previous Mock:  Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• The Indians actually covet Mike Leake, but he’s gone in this scenario.  With their first option gone, there is another name that has gotten a lot of press recently, due to his blowing up this year.  Eric Arnett, the ace of Indiana, is regarded to be the backup plan of many middle round teams here.  He’s kind of a local product, and has top of the rotation stuff.  He throws in the low to mid 90’s, and shows a good slider, though he needs to improve his changeup.  He’s a solid athlete, but the main issue is that he’s had a heavy workload in college.  So long as the Indians are careful, Arnett should be a very capable Number Two Starter, with the potential for more.

 16th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks

• Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• Previous Mock:  Mike Leake (RHP), Arizona State
• Gibson was regarded to be a top ten pick before he missed time because of a stress fracture right before the draft.  Gibson offers some dependability as well as the bonus that he probably won’t hold out for insane money, like the first guy on the top of this draft.  Gibson has a low 90’s fastball with some sink.  He also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which are solid pitches as well.  His command is average and his impressive height (6′6″), gives his stuff extra sink and movement.  However, the same problem I had with Crow is the same problem I have with Gibson: the delivery.  While Crow had that funky chicken wing type delivery, Gibson has a delivery similar to another big leaguer: Tim Lincecum.  Like Lincecum, Gibson seems to slingshot the ball, but like Lincecum, he repeats the delivery well.  He’s a fairly safe pick, and would be a huge value here in the middle of the first round. 

 17th Overall - Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation From The Los Angeles Dodgers For Orlando Hudson)

• Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia
• Previous Mock:  Same
• The big Georgia First Baseman has been one of the best hitters in the SEC, and was overshadowed a bit last season by shortstop Gordon Beckham, now with the Chicago White Sox.  Poythress is a terror at the plate.  He has power to all fields and could become a 40 home run threat in the majors.  He should hit for average in the majors, and he’s able to draw an huge amount of walks.  He’s not a great athlete and lacks speed, which could cause some fitness concerns as he gets older because he’s just so huge.  He’s played third base in the past, but he’s a passable first baseman, where he shows good hands and average range.  All in all, he should be productive, much more than what Arizona is currently getting from their first baseman, could rise quickly, and shouldn’t be expensive.

 18^th Overall - The Florida Marlins

• Chad James (RHP), Oklahoma High School
• Previous Mock:  Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• James is one of the better prep right handers available in this draft.  He has four pitches that are fairly solid.  His fastball sits in the low 90’s, touching 94 at times.  He also throws a good curveball that has great command.  His changeup is average and might be refined, and he has a slider that is as straight as an arrow.  James has a good pitcher’s build and his delivery needs some refinement, but nothing major.  He needs to build arm strength in order for him to sustain his velocity deeper into games, but he’s a good pick here.

 19th Overall - The St. Louis Cardinals

• Mike Minor (LHP), Vanderbilt
• Previous Mock: Chad James (RHP), Oklahoma High School
• A top talent in 2006, Minor has had a successful career at Vandy.  He throws in the high 80’s, touching 92, though he can reach back to throw a little more.  He’s got a good pitching frame and could gain a little mass.  He throws a curveball, slider, and changeup to add to his arsenal, and all are fairly good pitches for him to work with.  He understands how to pitch, and his command is quite good.  However, he has lacked consistency this year, and ultimately he’s not a fantastic pitcher, just a very good one.  In the end, he’s more Jeremy Sowers than David Price, and should be a good option for a National League club.  The Cardinals are said to be high on him, and he should do well under the tutelage of Dave Duncan.

20th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays

• Rex Brothers (LHP), Lipscomb
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Brothers is a pitcher from a smaller school that has begun to come on recently.  And you can see what, as he throws an explosive fastball that clocks around 96.  He has a second plus pitch in his slider, with good movement and life.  He has a changeup, but really doesn’t use it.  The issue with him is that his control is inconsistent and his delivery has some effort to it.  Overall, he’s a First Rounder, but the question is whether or not he can be refined enough to stay in the rotation.  Tentatively, I’d rate him here with the Blue Jays, who have had some success with this type of pitcher before. 

21st Overall - The Houston Astros

• Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School

• Previous Mock: Matt Davidson (3B), California High School

• The Astros are in need of a vast rebuilding, and if last season’s draft began the process, this year’s draft needs to follow it up with another banner talent.  A player that has come up as of late, Borchering is one of the best prep talents on the board.  A switch hitter, he offers legitimate power form both sides of the plate that will likely develop into plus power as he matures.  He has excellent hitting ability, allowing him to hit for a high average and help him develop excellent plate discipline in time.  He’s got the arm for third base, and is able to make the plays for the position, but his range is merely average and will likely decrease as he matures.  Still, there is more than enough talent that he would make a good first baseman in the future, but he can stay at third.  Other talents that the Astros could consider here are Mike Trout and Everett Williams.  Jiovanni Mier might also be a candidate to consider, if the Astros want to draft a shortstop of the future. 

22nd Overall - The Minnesota Twins

• Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• Previous Mock: Max Stassi (C), California High School
• The Twins could go in several different directions here.  They could acquire more outfield talent, with Trout and Williams still out there.  They could even begin picking at the remaining prep pitchers.  However, I wouldn’t pass up Mier, who was one of the only up the middle talents in this draft.  Mier has great potential and did well for Team USA during the previous summer.  He’s an athletic shortstop with solid projection all across the board.  He’s a good shortstop, showing a strong arm, good range, and hands.  As a hitter, he has a smooth swing and good bat speed.  He’s more of a gap hitter right now, but that could develop into twenty home run power in the future.  He has decent speed, but not great speed, and won’t be a stolen base threat in the future.  Overall, the tools are there for him to become an above average regular at shortstop.  He also shows a little bit of talent as a pitcher, as he hits the low 90’s and shows a good, not great breaking ball.  He has committed to USC, but he won’t hit an inning for the Trojans. 

23rd Overall - The Chicago White Sox

• Mike Trout (CF), New Jersey High School
• Previous Mock: Keyvius Sampson (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• The White Sox have been heavily scouting the high school outfield class and will have one of the better talents in this draft fall their way.  Trout is an athletic centerfielder that should remain in center, and in fact should be very good there.  He is one of the faster players in the draft, and should remain a stolen base threat.  He has good power, but not the type that you see translate into oodles of home runs.  This could change as he gets older.  He’s got a great swing and excellent bat speed.  More importantly, he’s a dirt bag on the field, and his style of play draws a lot of comparisons to Aaron Rowand.  All in all, the White Sox will likely mail this pick and call it a day.

24th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Mets For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Reymond Fuentes (CF), Puerto Rican High School
• Previous Mock: Austin Maddox (C), Florida High School
• Fuentes has been rising higher in draft boards (he’s reportedly coveted by Boston, and has been mentioned as high as 14 to Texas), but he won’t fall past the Angels.  The cousin of Carlos Beltran, Fuentes has solid tools to project on.  He has above average power, the potential to be an excellent defender, and lots of speed, both in foot and bat.  However, he’s also extremely raw and requires a lot of refinement.  He’s probably never going to post great on base numbers and his arm is average.  All in all, he might be able to become something along the lines of Alfonso Soriano at his best.  He won’t get any father than the Angels.

25th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Yankees For Mark Teixeira)

• Drew Storen (RHP), Stanford
• Previous Mock: Tim Wheeler (CF), Sacramento State
• Storen is likely to be one of the first college relievers off the board in the draft.  Though he’s a draft eligible sophomore, signability shouldn’t be a problem for him.  Storen receives a lot of attention because of his stuff.  He throws in the low 90’s, touching 96 with good life.  At higher speeds, though, his fastball does straighten out a bit.  He has a pair of off-speed pitches that also deserve notice.  His slider is a plus pitcher with late break while his curve is a finer, lower velocity pitch.  Because of his velocity, many feel that he has the ability to start.  It should be noted that while his command is excellent, his delivery does have some kink and recoil to it, which will need to be straightened out.  Overall, he’s a solid pick here and could pay off in a big way for a patient team.

 26th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers

• Everett Williams (CF), Texas High School
• Previous Mock: D.J. LeMahieu (SS), Louisiana State
• One of the last premium centerfield talents in this draft, Williams fits nicely here in Milwaukee.  Williams is an atletic centerifelder that should remain there, thanks to good range, instincts and a solid arm.  He has good power potential and a compact, quick swing.  Unfortunately, he also swings and misses a lot, which will likely remain an issue throughout his career.  All in all, he could be something similar to Mike Cameron.

 27th Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation From The Philadelphia Phillies For Raul Ibanez)

• Kyle Heckathorn (RHP), Kennesaw State
• Previous Mock: Deven Marrero (SS), Florida High School
• Heckathorn has excellent stuff that could work as either a starter or in relief.  He throws in the low 90’s, touching 96, along with a nasty slider with plenty of movement.  He lacks another off-speed pitch to give him a full starting repertoire though, which means some work has to be done.  His delivery is rough and will have to be cleaned up as well.  Overall, Heckathorn is a gamble, but the payoff is fairly high. 

 28th Overall - The Boston Red Sox

• Max Stassi (C), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Luke Bailey (C), Georgia High School
• Stassi ranks as the top prep catcher in this draft.  He’s got an advanced approach for a high school hitter and should be hit for a very good average.  His body frame projects for at least average power and gives him the durability to stay behind the plate. He is also a capable defender that moves well behind the bag and has a cannon of an arm.   All in all, he’s a nice pick here, and one that the Red Sox will make in a heartbeat.

29th Overall - The New York Yankees (Compensation For Gerrit Cole)

• Matthew Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock: Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• The another prep left hander, Purke is nearly in the class as that of Matzek.  He’s a solid left hander that thows in the low 90’s, touching 95 at times.  He has a good changeup, with the potential for it being a plus pitch later.  Her also has a curveball with good break and sink to it.  His command is fairly good, but there are some concerns about his durability due to him being a skinny kid.  I really don’t like it myself, as he doesn’t utilize the lower half of his body.  What has him falling is the fact that Purke wants a Rick Porcello type deal, which is a major league contract worth about $7 million.  That is ludicrous, as Purke is nowhere near the talent that Porcello was when he came out.  I think it may be a attempt to drive him down to the higher budgeted teams.  I have him going to New York for that reason, but New York really needs to make sure they can sign him.  If they fail to sign him, they don’t get this pick back next year.

30th Overall - The Tampa Bay Rays

• Mat Hobgood (RHP), Califonria High School
• Previous Mock: Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School
• One of the rising prep talents in the draft, Hobgood is a big, strong kid that stands at 6-4 and 250 pounds.  He throws in the low 90’s, occasionally hitting 96, with good movement that should induce a lot of groundballs.  He also throws a changeup and a curveball, both of which aren’t complete pitches, but have the potential to be above average or better.  His delievery is a bit stiff, but nothing to worry about.  What does need to be worried about is his weight, as he’ll probably always have to keep on top of his conditioning.  Overall, he should become a middle of the rotation workhorse, with the potential for more.  The fact that the Rays will have a chance to land him here is a testament to just how volatile this draft will be.

31st Overall - The Chicago Cubs

• A.J. Pollock (2B/CF), Notre Dame
• Previous Mock: Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern
• Almost too easy, with the whole fascination with Notre Dame by the Cubs in the past.  Pollack is a quick guy with solid plate discipline.  He moves well in centerfield and has played some second base in the past.  He’s regarded to be a capable defender, and shows some power as well.  He shows a quick bat and should hit for at least average in the majors.  However, he doesn’t have any tool that stands out, and really projects only to be a average or better regular.  Still, he’s a baseball rat and does a lot of things well, and will probably take slot from the Cubs.  All in all, he’s probably a solid buy here.

32nd Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation From The Los Angeles Angels For Brian Fuentes)

• Tim Wheeler (OF), Sacramento State
• Previous Mock: Sam Dyson (RHP), South Carolina
• One of the few college positional players with upside, Wheeler is overlooked because of the fact he plays for a small school.  However, he’s an athletic player that shows great power, and is able to get on base.  He has some speed and could be a legitimate 20-20 guy in the majors.  However, he’s limited to an outfield corner, and the question remains whether or not playing in a smaller conference influences Wheeler’s stats.  Still, the tools are there, and they’re enough to get him drafted in the sandwich round, if not the late first. 

 Supplemental First-Round Picks

33^rd Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation For Raul Ibanez)

• Stephen Baron (C), Florida High School
• There’s a rumor going around that the Mariners are going to take Baron with one of their supplemental picks, and may already have a deal in place with him.  Baron has the ability to make the majors as a backup at the very least.  He moves well from behind the plate, has a strong arm, soft hands, and calls a good game.  However, he is a mess at the plate and probably needs to have his swing reconstructed, as it’s full of holes.  When he does make contact, he has some power, but he’s a project that honestly should be taken a lot father than where he’s being rumored to go.

 34^th Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation For Brian Fuentes)

• James Paxton (LHP), Kentucky)
• Paxton is a late riser because of a velocity spike that came this year.  Paxton throws in the low 90’s as a lefty, touching 95 with life.  He compliments it with a curveball that has two plane break and is a major league out pitch right now.  He has the potential for a changeup, but it’s unrefined.  His delivery concerns some, as it does has some funk into it.  However, he tanked towards the end of the year and, with Scott Boras as his representation, he won’t be cheap.  Still, he’s not going to get out of the compensation round, and actually could rise into the end of the first round if someone really likes him.

35^th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Orlando Hudson)

• Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• Matt Davidson was once ranked as the top prep bat in this draft, but he’s fallen of late, though not for any cause of his own.  He is a big kid that might not remain at the hot corner, but his bat is good.   His best tool is his bat, his power potential in particular, which is among the highest among the prep bats in this drat class.  In addition, he also makes decent contact and has shown the beginnings of some plate discipline.  There have been some reports that he has improved his defense to the point where he’s tolerable, but I still think he’s a first baseman in the end. 

36^th Overall - The Los Angeles Dodgers (Compensation For Derek Lowe)

• Slade Heathcott (CF/RHP), Texas High School
• One of the highest ceiling athletes in the entire draft, Heathcott’s tools belong in the first round, but he got injured during the summer and has not pitched or taken the field since.  Still, he seems to be recovered and should be ready to take the field in pro ball.  All in all, Heathcott has excellent hitting skills and solid range in the outfield (or he did).  His power potential is fairly solid as well, making him a decent pick as a positional player.  However, as a left handed pitcher, he has touched 95, though his future is likely in center.  His swing is ugly and is going to have to be cleaned up.  The reason why Heathcott is in the supplemental round is because of his injury history and because of his background (parents are looking to go away for a while on drug charges).  Heathcott makes a lot of sense here at the Dodgers, though look for them to move him to new surroundings to try and keep him on track.

 37^th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays (Compensation For A.J. Burnett)

• Jared Mitchell (OF), LSU
• Mitchell isn’t the Blue Jays’ usual type of player, but he’s got the best tools in the draft among college outfielders not named Ackley.  Mitchell has played both the outfield and at wide receiver for LSU, but on the diamond that his future lies.  Mitchell has good power and speed on the basepaths.  He’s raw in almost all aspects of the game, but he does project to be an above average centerfielder.  He’ll probably always strike out a lot, but his bat speed is excellent and with proper development, he’ll have a huge return on a team’s investment.  He was actually rated as a first round talent, but he’s a absolute steal here.

38^th Overall - The Chicago White Sox (Compensation For Orlando Cabrera)

• Brett Jackson (CF/RHP), Cal
• One of the better all around options is Cal’s Jackson.  Jackson is a two-way player, but his overall upside is that of a positional player.  Jackson is a solid athlete that could potentially be considered to be a first round pick.  He’s got some of the best power potential in the draft and is a solid outfielder with enough range and arm to stay in center.  His biggest flaw is that he’s so raw offensively, in spite of him having good tools.  Overall, he’s a player that gets the J.D. Drew comp in terms of physical tools.

39^th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation For CC Sabathia)

• Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• Oliver was another pitcher regarded to be a potential first rounder, but he’s not nearly as bad as his numbers suggest.  Oliver has a solid repertoire, with a low 90’s fastball, a curveball that could be a plus pitch, and a changeup as well.  However, his changeup and curveball are both behind the fastball, and his command isn’t great despite good mechanics.  However, he does generate good groundball rates.  All in all, he requires some work, but he’s got Number Two starter upside if he can develop a quality-breaking ball.  He’s going to cost first round money because of the Boras connection, but the Brewers have a good working relationship with him and could get him signed quickly.

 40^th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For Mark Teixeira)

• Luke Bailey (C), Georgia High School
• Once regarded to be the most complete catcher of the draft, Bailey fell after it was revealed he needed Tommy John Surgery.  However, the tools are still there, as he shows above average skill at the plate and behind it.  He’s a solid receiver that calls a good game and has good movement behind the bag.  He has a solid swing and shows good power, but not great.  None of his tools are plus, but he showed enough tools to merit being a Top 15 selection.  The Angels could offer Bailey a above slot deal to bypass his commitment to Auburn, and then rehab him over the next year. 

 41^st Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Juan Cruz)

• Trent Stevenson (RHP), Arizona High School
• Stevenson was recommended by readers of the blog, so I took a look.  There is a lot to like about Stevenson.  He’s got excellent height, and looks like he’s still got loads of projection.  He throws in the low 90’s, topping out around 94, with the potential for more in time.  He also has a pair of off-speed pitches that could develop in time.  However, he needs to gain some mass, as he’s almost anorexic when you see him pitch, and he has some trouble maintaining his velocity late in games.  His two off-speed pitches, a slider and a changeup, could both become solid pitches, but are both quite raw.  In all honesty, Stevenson could be a potential first round pick if he develops, and it’s almost likely that he’s headed to college.  However, it’s possible that Stevenson could get nabbed by the hometown Diamondbacks, which might sway his decision.

 42^nd Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Sam Dyson (RHP), South Carolina
• Another big name pick I have for the Halos, who could easily restock a farm system in need of it.  A draft eligible sophomore, Dyson will have his name called out on the first day.  Dyson has good size to remain a starter.  He also has some of the best stuff in this draft.  Dyson throws in the low 90’s, touching 98 on occasion.  He compliments this with a sharp hammer curveball that gives him at least a bullpen arsenal.  However, Dyson has several flaws.  For starters, he’s had some arm problems in the past, and already has a Tommy John to his name.  He also lacks a second offspeed pitch, with his changeup being a work in progress.  However, he is aggressive on the mound, and when he’s on, he’s easily one of the most higher ceiling players in the draft.  In terms of where I think he’ll go, because of his status as a draft eligible sophomore, he has some leverage to gain a higher bonus. 

 43^rd Overall - The Cincinnati Reds (Compensation For Jeremy Affeldt)

• Will Myers (C), North Carolina High School
• Myers is a solid prep bat that really doesn’t have a position right now.  He’s an excellent athlete that is currently a catcher, but could wind up moving to third base because of his size.  Still, he’s got a strong arm and might have the range to stick there.  As a hitter, he’s got strong wrists and a quick bat that allow him to generate good power from his bat.  He should be able to hit for a good enough average.  All in all, he’s an intriguing pick. 

44^th Overall - The Texas Rangers (Compensation For Milton Bradley)

• Tyler Skaggs (LHP), California High School
• I was torn between having the Rangers pick between Skaggs or Colton Cain, but in the end, I opted for Skaggs.  Skaggs is a highly projectable lefty who pitches in the high 80’s, early 90’s, with the potential for more as he matures.  He throws a good curveball with good break, though it can flatten out at times.  He also throws a changeup, but it’s crude.  Still, he would have risen into the first round had he not gotten hurt, and I think he’ll wind up as a solid middle of the rotation lefty. 

 45^th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation For Brandon Lyon)

• Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State
• Tottle was impressive in the Cape Cod League this year, where he served as Falmouth’s closer, but an inconsistent season had him falling out of the first round.  He easily has some of the best stuff in the draft.  His fastball clocks in the mid 90’s, touching 98 with regularity.  He also has one of the best slider’s in the draft.  However, Tootle also has his faults.  His breaking ball is vulnerable to left handers and his fastball is straight.  Plus, his mechanics are a bit violent, making some considering him to be a reliever.  But overall, he’s a live arm and one that deserves to get taken in this spot. 

 46^th Overall - The Minnesota Twins (Compensation For Dennys Reyes)

• Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Givens has a wide assessment of opinions in the scouting community, ranging from mid first rounder to undraftable.  Givens has a strong pitchers frame, and plays shortstop and centerfield for Plant High School.  He has massive power potential and can rake at times.  However, Givens’ ability to make contact thanks to his long and complex swing has many wondering if he can hit as a pro.  He does have the range and arm to play shortstop, though he might wind up a corner outfielder as he matures.  As a pitcher, he throws hard.  Givens’ fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and he has a changeup and curveball that do have some potential.  However, he doesn’t have a great feel for his pitches, and his delivery is a sort of bastard sidearm.  All in all, he’s got first round ability, but he’s such a raw product that he’s probably going to go toward the end of the first round.  If he ends up in the right organization, he could become a superstar.

 47^th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation For Brian Shouse)

• Colton Cain (LHP/1B), Texas High School
• One of the more controversial prospects in the comments section, Cain is all about the power, both as a positional player and as a pitcher.  As a first baseman, Cain has a good swing, good power, and is able to draw some walks as well.  He’s got a strong arm at first (obviously), but isn’t fast and is limited strictly to first base as a defender.  As a pitcher, Cain throws in the high 80’s, touching 92 at times, and throws a good curveball as well.  He also has a changeup, but it’s weak at the moment.  All in all, he’s probably one of the top lefties in the prep class.  However, several factors work against him.  First off, at 6-3, 230, he’s going to be seen as a durable pitcher with a strong frame, but scouts are also going to question how much projection he has left.  Second, he’s got a college commitment to Texas, and they are pretty good at keeping their higher rated recruits.  So we’ll see where he goes, but I do think he’s a first rounder, but I also think it’s going to take some good coin to sign him away from Austin.  But he will probably be in the recommendations for draft rooms beginning at 26 with Milwaukee.

48^th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation For The Shittiness Of Jon Garland)

• Victor Black (RHP), Dallas Baptist
• A smaller school pick, Black is a solid prospect in his own right.  Black throws in the low 90’s, getting good movement on the pitch.  He lacks any sort of off-speed pitches right now, though his curveball could eventually become a usable pitch.  He lacks command as well, and his delivery does generate some concern.  However, the Angels have had some success with this type of pitcher in the past, and while Black could wind up a excellent reliever, the tools are there for him to become an impact starting pitcher.

49^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates (Compensation For Not Signing Tanner Scheppers In 2008)

• Brad Broxberger (RHP), USC
• The ace of USC’s staff, Boxberger was an effective reliever as well in the Cape Cod League.  Boxberger throws in the low 90’s, coupling it with a sharp curveball that give him an effective one-two punch.  He also throws a slider and a changeup, with the slider being the potential to become a league average pitch.  His delivery is a bit long, and his command and control are below average.  However, he’s a solid risk to take here, and the payoff that he could become a middle of the rotation guy far outweighs the potential he becomes a reliever. 

 Other Potential Talents To Watch For

Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern

Shields hasn’t quite hit for the power I expected, but he’s been respectable enough that he won’t drop out of the first round.  Shields is regarded to be an average shortstop, with average speed and range.  He’s not a standout defender, but he isn’t bad at shortstop and could remain there with some work on his defensive fundamentals.  Where Shields stands out is with his bat.  He’s got good bat speed and some power for a infield bat.  In time, you might be able to get something similar to a taller Dustin Pedroia.

 Mark Krauss (OF/3B/1B), Ohio

A solidly built guy, Krauss plays a multitude of positions for the Redhawks.  He has a quick bat and hits for some good power.  He is also patient and uses the entire field.  However, he’s regarded to be only average defensively, which hurts his draft stock a bit.  It really depends on where a team sees him.  He should be a steal in the lower rounds, and I’ll guess he probably goes in the third.  Still, he’s pretty nifty in a Kellen Kulbacki sort of way, who had similar knocks like Krauss and went in the sandwich first round in 2007.  I think there is a good chance you’ll see Krauss nabbed in either the compensation round or in the second.

 Jason Stoffel (RHP), Arizona

One of the top relievers in the draft, Stoffel has big enough stuff to potentially succeed as a starter as well.  He throws in the low 90’s, but his fastball has good life on it and induces a lot of ground balls.  His curveball is a plus pitch and when coupled with the fastball, gives him a great two pitch mix.  He has a changeup as well, but he hasn’t used it much in college.  As a closer, he has a bulldog mentality on the mound.  All in all, he might be able to succeed as a starter if given a shot, but he’s a bad ass as a closer.  You’ll see him get taken in the late second. 

Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M

You are pretty much gambling on Wilson to recover from Tommy John as he goes along, but he is still a potential top of the first round talent to take a shot on.  He throws in the low 90’s, touching 96 at times.  He also throws a slider that is a solid out pitch.  He also throws a changeup that is at least average.  However, his command isn’t back yet and his delivery is violent, but overall he’s got the potential to be a huge steal if he recovers well.  He also got moved to the bullpen, where he struggled, and this might be because of exhaustion in his first year back.  Some team will take a chance on him in the second or third.

Kendall Volz (RHP), Baylor

Rated to be a first rounder coming into the season, Volz has instead struggled and seen his stock drop.  When he was right, Volz threw a sinking fastball in the low 90’s.  He has a changeup with plenty of break that couples with his sinker.  He also throws a curveball that could be a average or better pitch, and it has plenty of break when he commands it well.  That’s his biggest issue, as that he’s so inconsistent.  However, his mechanics aren’t bad and he could be an above average starter once he gets his stuff together.  At the very worst, he becomes a groundball reliever like Justin Masterson has been used. 

Cameron Coffey (RHP), Texas High School

Coffey is a tall left that has easy velocity.  He throws in the high 80’s, but can touch 92 several times.  He has an excellent changeup with good movement, and he has a slider, but it’s raw.  His delivery has some kinks to work out, and he can overthrow his pitches at times, causing him to flatten out his pitches.  He also has trouble maintaining his velocity.  However, there are some things to like about him, and his commitment to Duke can be bought out.  All in all, look for Coffey to go in the first day.

Garrett Gould (RHP), Kansas High School

Gould is one of a umber of arms that could take taken in the supplemental/second round mix.  His delivery is violent, but his stuff is pretty good.  He throws in the low 90’s and can maintain that velocity through several innings.  He has a power curve that is an out pitch with plenty of break.  He also has a changeup, but it’s weak and will need to be brought along.  His delivery is the thing that will concern folks the most, and any team that picks him is going to have to smooth that out.

 Chris Dominguez (3B), Louisville

Dominguez has raised his draft stock in the College Baseball Playoffs.  While he’s unlikely to remain at third base and strikes out a lot, he has the raw power potential that will entice a team to move him to first base.  All in all, he’s a solid bet to be gone in the mid to late second.

 Keyvius Sampson (SS/RHP), Florida High School

An excellent two-way player, Sampson is a decent defender with some power to him.  However, he’s a much better prospect as a hitter.  He has a smooth delivery and a projectable frame that screams projectability.  he touches about 91 or so right now, and could gain a lot more in time.  He has a second plus pitch in his curveball with good sink.  He also has a changeup that is at least average right now.  Overall, he’s the classic boom or bust pick.

Likely Heading/Returning To School

D.J. LeMahieu (SS), Louisiana State

Lamahieu was thought to be set to take advantage of a weak college positional player class, but he hasn’t hit for great power, and showed that he probably should move over to third base.  He’s a large kid with average range, but he’s got a strong arm and enough range to move to third base.  However, his power ceiling isn’t enough for that position, so second base might be best.  All in all, he’s probably returning to school.

Deven Marrero (SS), Florida High School

The latest of the Marrero clan (brother Chris and…well Chris, are in the Nationals and White Sox systems, respectively).  Despite this pedigree, he’s completely different from his brothers.  He’s regarded to be a solid defensive shortstop, but he’s not as big as either of his brothers and doesn’t have great power.  His bat speed is only average and speed on the bases is the same.  Overall, some team will take a chance on him in the later rounds of the draft, but he’s likely headed to college, where he could develop his skills enough to become a second or third round pick in three years.

 Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee

A draft eligible sophomore, Davis drew a lot of comparisons to Kirby Puckett (more skin color related than anything).  Davis is short at 5-9, but projected to hit for solid power thanks to strong wrists and a good swing.  He’s also a solid runner.  The problem is that he can’t play center, which happens to be the only place where his bat can play.  There is also the concern that Davis, already a beefy player, could further move out of center due to gaining mass.  In all honest, he’s probably a left fielder in the end, and while one of the big market teams will take a chance on him, he’s probably returning to Tennessee.

Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami

Once thought to be a sandwich pick, Jackson has shown that he might simply be a defensive specialist.  While he flashes an excellent glove, he has shown no power and very little in terms of plate discipline or contact.  He might be better served returning to college in hopes of resurrecting his value next season.

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Who Walks The Plank Next?

June 7, 2009 at 1:18 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, MLB, NL, NL Central, Pittsburgh Pirates

Programming Note:  My final mock draft before the draft on Tuesday is going to be posted tomorrow morning, in case you all are interested.

With Nate McLouth now an Atlanta Brave, I wonder what is next for the Pirates, who now look to take the record for most consecutive losing seasons, and perhaps even the first overall pick in next years draft.

Andrew McCutchen is up, and going to remain a Pirate for six more years after this.  It’s possible that by then, there will be enough of a core that Pittsburgh can remain competitive.

By then, Pedro Alvarez will have taken over first base duties, Andy LaRoche should have finally attained that solid player status that was projected for him when he was signed away from a Rice commitment by the Dodgers, and Brad Lincoln will have taken over a spot in the rotation.  Hopefully, Bryan Morris will have reached his considerable talent and developed into a front of the rotation talent.

That’s a lot of hopes and wishes, but it’s the best one can hope for as a Pittsburgh Pirate fan.

Nor will the trades stop here.

Figure on several players entering their walk years to attract some talent.  Here’s a list of who could go:

Adam LaRoche (1B) - Normally a slow starter, LaRoche comes on in the second half of the season and could attract a contender’s interest.  Should the worst happen with Carlos Delgado, the Mets could make an offer.  However, that might not happen, as many of the Mets’ trade chips are now off-limits due to injuries.  Another option could be the Boston Red Sox, who could use LaRoche as a first baseman/DH in case David Ortiz never comes around.   The Giants, who are in need of a first baseman, could make sense in terms of a trade.  The compensation, on the other hand, is where things can get a little sticky.  One option could be outfielder Wendell Fairly, a toolsy centerfielder that hasn’t hit much, but could also use a change of scenery.  Another option for the Giants might be sending the Pirates back the enigmatic Jonathan Sanchez as part of a larger, multiple team deal like the Jason Bay trade.  However, one thing to keep in mind is that LaRoche isn’t a star, but rather a very average regular.  And that, my friends, is worth a very average pitching prospect, likely one that is a back of the rotation/reliever type.  Or a hitting prospect that might develop into something.  Key word is might.

Freddy Sanchez (2B/3B) - Sanchez is also coming up on an expensive walk year, plus a vesting option, and is also too expensive for the Pirates to afford.  A team looking at him could use him at second or third, or even as a super utility man in the infield.  Unfortunately, there are few, if any takers for Sanchez, and even them, it’s likely that both sides will not want to give up anything in value.  Of the lot, Sanchez is the one that is almost certian to stay.

Jack Wilson (SS) - With the renewed emphasis on defense, Wilson has value for a team looking to have a reasonable option at short.  And Wilson isn’t a bad player, just overpaid.  Of the current contenders, Bostom might have interest in acquiring him, though again, because of the cost, don’t expect much for him.

Zach Duke (LHP) - How about a former rookie of the year?  Of the entire Pirates’ staff, Duke is the one with argaubly the weakest stuff.  And, with arbitration looming, I’m not sure I would want to pay the huge raises he’s going to ask for Plus, young pitching is always valuable, and a contender in need of an extra pitcher would part with the McLouth package at the very least for Duke, and perhaps a little more.  The Brewers might be interested in a deal, possibly allowing the Pirates to obtain Matt Gamel or another useful piece.  Whatever the buyer that might be interested, rest assured that Duke will command a hefty booty.

Matt Capps (LHP) - If we learned anything this past off-season, it’s that relief pitching is typically over valued.  Look at the goody bag that Seattle obtained for former closer J.J. Putz, which wound up giving them their first baseman of the future, their centerfielder of the present, their current fourth starter, and more.   Capps I would shop around, hoping for the biggest value.  One team I would hit up would be Cleveland, who has a lot of bats that they could trade for valuable relief help.  I would specifically target either Beau Mills, a mashing first baseman/designated hitter type that has value anywhere, or perhaps Trevor Crowe, who could start for Pittsburgh right now and is a hell of a lot better than Brandon Moss.  

All in all, while the fan outrage over the McLouth trade is a tad justified, it ignores the bigger picture that the Pirates need to build up their young core.  With that young core comes bigger things to come, like perhaps multiple winning seasons and perhaps even the playoffs.  The cycle that the Pirates are on, of pretending to contend when they’re actually just fucking off on the process needs to stop.  And the only way they can do that is by trading popular vets that have value for prospects, and investing in the draft and international market.  Then, Pirate fans, you can look foward to not just one fan favorite, but several.

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Breaking Down The McLouth Trade

June 3, 2009 at 5:34 pm · Filed under Atlanta Braves, MLB, NL, NL Central, NL East, Pittsburgh Pirates

Well, this was unexpected. 

According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Braves acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates today, in return for Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez, as per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

It’s unexpected because the Pirates had signed McLouth through 2011 with a 2012 club option.  McLouth was largely touted as a block from which the Pirates would build upon.   Obviously not.

McLouth improves centerfield for the Bravex greatly, and strengthens the lineup.  He also doesn’t block anyone long term, as Jordan Schaffer will be back, allowing McLouth to slide to a outfield corner.  Plus, the Braves have him under contract for several more years.  Overall, it’s a solid deal for the Braves, who do lose a couple of arms in a system full of them, plus a centerfield prospect that was blocked by Schafer, who is still the Braves’ centerfielder of the future.

The Pirates now open a spot for the defensively superior Andrew McCutchen, one of their top prospects.  McCutchen also has greater upside with the stick as well, and should be a perennial All-Star in time.

As for the three prospects, Hernandez is the biggest piece of the deal.  He’s a speedy centerfielder with leadoff potential that would be a boost to the Pirates long term.   Morton has had mixed success in the majors, but he’s got a big arm with the potential for more if he’s ever able to harness his inner Nuke LaLoosh.  Locke is also a impressive pitching prospect on his own, as he throws in the low 90’s with a good curve and change, but he  has had some trouble in the higher minors this year.    Still, he was an excellent buy low candidate, and could turn it around with a change of scenery.

Still, I can’t help but feel that the Pirates could have weasled a fourth guy out of the Braves, who are loaded.  Still, Hernandez and Locke ranked high on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 11 prospects (Locke ranked 15th, Hernandez ranked 4th), and they do add quality depth to the Pirates’ minors, which are starting to bear a little bit of fruit (check out Brad Lincoln’s stats).  All in all, it’s a solid deal, but one that leaves me a bit unsatisfied if I were a Pirate fan.

Braves Grade:  A

Pirates Grade:  ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGHHHH  B+

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Morisato’s 2009 MLB Mock Draft Version 3.0

May 4, 2009 at 6:19 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, AL Central, AL East, Cape Cod League, MLB, NL, NL Central, NL East, NL West

It’s time for a new update on the 2009 MLB Mock Draft, fellow Draftniks.  Here it goes.

1st Overall - The Washington Nationals

• Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Strasburg is still the top guy, thanks to his impressive showing in Beijing and in his dominant start to the season.  Strasburg has a strong pitchers build, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, touching 100 on occasions.  His fastball has good movement on it as well.  He keeps his velocity deep into games, and his command is solid.  He also has two other quality pitches in his changeup and his slider.  He has great command over his stuff and has a great mound presence.  However, there are some red flags coming up on Strasburg recently, mainly in his mechanics and pitching motion.  Driveline Mechanics did a study on Strasburg, and found his mechanics to be troubling.  The comparison that they came up with was of Mark Prior, which isn’t a great comp to pull up.  They predict that he’ll probably lose velocity in time, and eventually have to have a major shoulder injury.  Overall, he’s a solid prospect, and if he really is the ticking time bomb that Driveline Mechanics described him as, he’ll probably be useful until Scott Boras takes him to free agency.  Former GM Jim Bowden stated that the decision to draft Strasburg has already been made, so it’s pretty close to a lock to have him picked here.

2nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

• Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Same
• White has had a bit of a rough stretch recently, but his stats are still solid and he should still be the Number Two guy.  White throws in the low 90’s and is able to touch 95.  Also in his favor is that his fastball has plenty of sink to it.  He throws a slider that is just as effective.  Where his problem lies is in his curveball, which he clearly isn’t comfortable with using.  He also has a changeup, but also doesn’t use it much as well either.  White works quickly and his delivery is solid, though he does have some issues with command at times.  There are some questions if he’s an ace, but overall, he should at least be a solid Number Two.  Another option available here would be North Carolina’s Dustin Ackley, who has been simply amazing this season.

3rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

• Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Grant Green (SS), USC
• The best hitter in the draft, Ackley is starting to come along fairly well.  He’s got excellent plate discipline and speed.  He also has shown a bit of a power spike, which further boosts his attractiveness.  He’s begun to transition to the outfield, where he shows the range and speed to play center.  His arm should be average, though reports are that it wasn’t much to begin with.  Overall, he’s overtaken Green as the top positional player in my book, and would be a 20/20 guy as a left fielder, but a borderline star in center. 

4th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

• Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Crow makes his independant ball debut tonight, so for the moment, I do stand by my guess that he’ll be the fourth overall pick.  Selected with the 9th overall pick by Washington, Crow, his negotiators, and the Washington Front Office all had a comedy of errors that resulted in Crow returning to the draft.  I’ve used to think that his delivery makes him a ticking time bomb, but he does repeat the delivery well.  The success of pitchers like Tim Lincecum has made it a bit easier to take a shot on guys with unusual deliveries.  Crow has great stuff.  He throws a fastball with good movement that clocks in the high 90’s.  He couples it with a bastard slider and a changeup that rates around average.  He pounds the strike zone, but his command is a bit off because of his funky delivery.  Still, the tools are there for him to be a potential big leaguer, possibly a good two, or even a one if the changeup and command improve.  Tanner Scheppers, who the Pirates picked last year, is another option to go with, but I’m not sure he’s filled out a consent to re-draft card.   Tyler Matzek, the top prep pitcher, is another solid choice. 

5th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

• Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Tate is regarded to be one of the best athletes in the draft.  The son of Lars Tate, Donovan has top ten talent tools.  He’s very fast and is regarded to be quite strong, allowing him to muscle a ball out of the park.  He’s shown flashes of being an excellent defensive centerfielder.  However, the problem with Tate is that he’s extremely raw, due to the fact that he hasn’t chosen one sport.  The ultimate question on what I have Tate falling so far is that he has signed to play football for North Carolina as a running back.  So the question is, is he really wanting to play football, or is this a ploy for him to get a huge bonus.  Whatever the reason, he’s going to be regarded as extremely risky, and any organization that takes him will have to work with him to achieve his talent. 

6th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

• Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• Atlanta’s pick with it’s highest pick in years, so why not make it count.  They do have their choice of the remaining college pitchers, like Gibson and Kendrall Volz, but I think they’ll got with the top high school lefty in the draft, Matzek.  At six three, he shows lots of projection, but already has three pitches that project to be above average pitches.  He throws around 90, touching 94 at times, while mixing in a curveball that is a borderline plus pitch.  He also shows a solid slider and an idea of a changeup.  Overall, he’s a solid young pitcher that is fairly polished and should rise rather quickly.  The Giants are in the enviable position of choosing between the top three young pitchers in the draft.  I think they’ll go with Matzek.   

7th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

• Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• Zack Wheeler is a power pitcher that ranks among the elite of the prep pitchers in this draft.  Wheeler throws in he low 90’s, touching 96 at times, with good life.  He has a curveball that is a plus pitch.  He also has a changeup, but it’s crude and needs work.  He’s got some kink to his delivery, but he repeats it well and could be smoothed over a bit to make it work.  However, he’s got projection and his delivery really isn’t all that bad.  All in all, he could be an excellent pitcher, and along with Matzek and Shelby Miller, has the potential to become an ace in time.  It’s a toss up between Miller and Wheeler here.  I’ll say that the Braves go with the local kid here, though this could go either way.

8th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

• Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock:  Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• Miller is a solid young pitcher who shows excellent stuff.  His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, touching 96 with some sink.  He also throws a curveball with good movement and throws a raw changeup as well.  However, his command is below average and he rushes his delivery a bit, according to Keith Law.  However, he’s got a power pitcher’s frame, and has room to add more mass, and possibly add velocity, as he gets older.  Overall, he’s not a bad pick and the Rangers could do worse than to add another high upside arm to the system.

9th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

• Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints
• Previous Mock:  Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• The reports are looking good in terms of Scheppers making a comeback from arm and labrum surgery.  From the early buzz going on, I suspect that the Tigers will probably pop him here.  Scheppers, who was rated as a potential top ten pick last year before he needed to have shoulder surgery.  The result was that he fell to the second round.  In spite of his injury, Scheppers still wanted top ten money, and the Pirates ultimately weren’t comfortable in ponying up a huge deal for him.  Scheppers flashes mid 90’s velocity as well as a good curve and changeup, but overall aside form recovering from the procedure, he’ll have to find a way to repeat his delivery to help his command and control.  I think he’ll be back to where he was before, making him a lock for the middle of the draft at the least.  He could go higher if he dominates the American Association, in which he makes his pro debut tonight.

10th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

• Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• Previous Mock:  Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• One of the other highly rated college pitchers in this draft, Gibson offers some dependability as well as the bonus that he probably won’t hold out for insane money, like the first guy on the top of this draft.  Gibson has a low 90’s fastball with some sink.  He also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which are solid pitches as well.  His command is average and his impressive height (6′6″), gives his stuff extra sink and movement.  However, the same problem I had with Crow is the same problem I have with Gibson: the delivery.  While Crow had that funky chicken wing type delivery, Gibson has a delivery similar to another big leaguer: Tim Lincecum.  Like Lincecum, Gibson seems to slingshot the ball, but like Lincecum, he repeats the delivery well.  He probably won’t take long to reach the majors, and if things fall to plan in this draft, the Nationals could boast a rotation of Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gibson, Colin Balester and John Lannan, a rotation that you can contend with, in 2011.

11th Overall - The Colorado Rockies

• Matthew Purke (RHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock:  Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• The another prep left hander, Purke is nearly in the class as that of Matzek.  He’s a solid left hander that thows in the low 90’s, touching 95 at times.  He has a good changeup, with the potential for it being a plus pitch later.  Her also has a curveball with good break and sink to it.  His command is fairly good, but there are some concerns about his durability due to him being a skinny kid.  Reagrdless, he’s a solid enough pitcher that is more than worthy of being drafted here.

12th Overall - The Kansas City Royals

• Jared Mitchell (OF), LSU
• Previous Mock:  Kendall Volz (RHP), Baylor
• Mitchell has star quality tools.  He’s played both the outfield and at wide receiver for LSU, but on the diamond that his future lies.  Mitchell has good power and speed on the basepaths.  He’s raw in almost all aspects of the game, but he does project to be an above average centerfielder.  He’ll probably always strike out a lot, but his bat speed is excellent and with proper development, he’ll have a huge return on a team’s investment.  The Royals have a lot of interesting pitching prospect, but are short on any sort of positional player talent that projects to be anything more than a backup.  Mitchell would be a welcome change.

13th Overall - The Oakland Athletics

• Grant Green (SS), USC
• Previous Mock:  Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern
• Green’s been inconsistent, as he’s shown the ability to Green has had an inconsistent start to the season that so far sees his bat and his glove take a step back.  Normally, Green is an excellent defender with good range and soft hands.  He’s a quality athlete and while he lacks elite speed, he is an effective base runner.  He lacks significant power, and doesn’t walk real often.  In fact, he’s seen a spike in his home runs, as well as a decline in his defense, that’s a little concerning.  It’s possible he could be a 20-20 guy if he’s able to tap into his power potential.  He might be a candidate to move to third base in the future, and his concerns will likely scare off a lot of the teams in the top ten.  Still, I like him enough to pick him here, as Oakland might be able to work with him enough to get his defense to the level where he can stay at shortstop.  Mike Leake, arguably the second best statistical college starting pitcher, is another option.

14th Overall - The Texas Rangers

• Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• Previous Mock:  Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• Turner gets lost in the schuffle of the high school arms beginning to assert themselves, but he shouldn’t be forgotten.  He’s a beefy young power pitcher that throws with excellent velocity, touching 96 repeatedly.  He has a He has pitches in his curveball and a changeup that project to be above average.  He’s got solid command and a nice, easy delivery.  Many have compared him to Tim Melville, which isn’t quite fair, as Melville was a borderline top 10 talent.  Still, he’s a solid prospect with low bust potential that should make a team happy.  Texas will likely take either Turner or Mier.  Because I graded both rather similarly, this was decided by a coin flip.

15th Overall - The Cleveland Indians

• Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State
• One of the top prep bats, and one of the only up the middle talents in this draft, Mier has great potential and did well for Team USA during the previous summer.  He’s an athletic shortstop with solid projection all across the board.  He’s a good shortstop, showing a strong arm, good range, and hands.  As a hitter, he has a smooth swing and good bat speed.  He’s more of a gap hitter right now, but that could develop into twenty home run power in the future.  He has decent speed, but not great speed, and won’t be a stolen base threat in the future.  Overall, the tools are there for him to become an above average regular at shortstop.  He also shows a little bit of talent as a pitcher, as he hits the low 90’s and shows a good, not great breaking ball.  He has committed to USC, but he won’t hit an inning for the Trojans. 

16th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks

• Mike Leake (RHP), Arizona State
• Previous Mock:  Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• One of the top pitching prospects in this draft, Leake is fairly solid.  He has exceptional command over his stuff, which is how he’s had such success at ASU.  His fastball clocks in the high 80’s-early 90’s, with excellent movement that allows it to be more effective than it should be.  He has a solid curve that has late break, and a changeup that gives him a weapon against lefties.  He also has a slider, but it’s probably his worst pitch.  He’s fairly athletic (he also plays the outfield every once in a while) and his delivery is compact.  Overall, he should go toward the end of the first round.  He doesn’t have much upside, or development, but he should contribute in a short time. He’d add quality depth to the Diamondbacks, and he’d rise fairly quickly.

17th Overall - Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation From The Los Angeles Dodgers For Orlando Hudson)

• Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia
• Previous Mock:  Same
• The big Georgia First Baseman has been one of the best hitters in the SEC, and was overshadowed a bit last season by shortstop Gordon Beckham, now with the Chicago White Sox.  Poythress is a terror at the plate.  He has power to all fields and could become a 40 home run threat in the majors.  He should hit for average in the majors, and he’s able to draw an huge amount of walks.  He’s not a great athlete and lacks speed, which could cause some fitness concerns as he gets older because he’s just so huge.  He’s played third base in the past, but he’s a superb defender at first base, with good range and hands.  All in all, he’s a steal here at Arizona, but there is a chance he might not be here, with the rate that he’s rising up draft boards.

18th Overall - The Florida Marlins

• Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• Givens has a wide assessment of opinions in the scouting community, ranging from mid first rounder to undraftable.  Givens has a strong pitchers frame, and plays shortstop and centerfield for Plant High School.  He has massive power potential and can rake at times.  However, Givens’ ability to make contact thanks to his long and complex swing has many wondering if he can hit as a pro.  He does have the range and arm to play shortstop, though he might wind up a corner outfielder as he matures.  As a pitcher, he throws hard.  Givens’ fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and he has a changeup and curveball that do have some potential.  However, he doesn’t have a great feel for his pitches, and his delivery is a sort of bastard sidearm.  All in all, he’s got first round ability, but he’s such a raw product that he’s probably going to go toward the end of the first round.  If he ends up in the right organization, he could become a superstar.

19th Overall - The St. Louis Cardinals

• Chad James (RHP), Oklahoma High School
• Previous Mock:  Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami
• James is one of the better prep right handers available in this draft.  He has four pitches that are fairly solid.  His fastball sits in the low 90’s, touching 94 at times.  He also throws a good curveball that has great command.  His changeup is average and might be refined, and he has a slider that is as straight as an arrow.  James has a good pitcher’s build and his delivery needs some refinement, but nothing major.  He needs to build arm strength in order for him to sustain his velocity deeper into games, but he’s a good pick here.

20th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays

• Rex Brothers (LHP), Lipscomb
• Previous Mock:  Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee
• Brothers is a pitcher from a smaller school that has begun to come on recently.  And you can see what, as he throws an explosive fastball that clocks around 96.  He has a second plus pitch in his slider, with good movement and life.  He has a changeup, but really doesn’t use it.  The issue with him is that his control is inconsistent and his delivery has some effort to it.  Overall, he’s a First Rounder, but the question is whether or not he can be refined enough to stay in the rotation.  Tentatively, I’d rate him here with the Blue Jays, who have had some success with this type of pitcher before. 

21st Overall - The Houston Astros

• Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• This one was a tough one, and with the Nationals are back on the board, and they will have their choice between the top college lefty or the beginnings of the top of the prep class.  With Strasburg already in the fold, the Nationals might choose one of the prep bats in an effort to keep some money free to sign some other guys in the lower rounds.  That doesn’t mean they won’t get a top talent.  Matt Davidson is the top prep bat in this draft.  He is a big kid that might not remain at the hot corner, but his bat is good.   His best tool is his bat, his power potential in particular, which is among the highest among the prep bats in this drat class.  In addition, he also makes decent contact and has shown the beginnings of some plate discipline.  There have been some reports that he has improved his defense to the point where he’s tolerable, and could be acceptable in time.  So, Davidson is my pick here…for now anyway.  The Astros haven’t been known to make the best draft picks when their turn comes up.

22nd Overall - The Minnesota Twins

Max Stassi (C), California High School

Previous Mock:  Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School

The best statistical prep hitter among the catchers, Stassi is probably the most complete catcher of the prep class in this draft.  He has a highly advacned approach to the plate and should hit for a quality average and decent power.  He’s been fairly durable and is a capable defender with a cannon for an arm.  Overall, he’d be a steal here for the Twins, who could not only get great value here, but an eventually successor to Joe Mauer, whom I think will wind up at third base at some point in the future.

23rd Overall - The Chicago White Sox

• Keyvius Sampson (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Austin Maddox (C), Florida High School
• An excellent two way player, Sampson is a decent defender with some power to him.  However, he’s a much better prospect as a hitter.  He has a smooth delivery and a projectable frame that screams projectability.  he touches about 91 or so right now, and could gain a lot more in time.  He has a second plus pitch in his curveball with good sink.  He also has a changeup that is at least average right now.  Overall, he’s the classic boom or bust pick, but the potential here is so tantalizing here that the White Sox can’t afford not to give him a shot.

24th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Mets For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Austin Maddox (C), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M
• Regarded to be one of the best high school catchers in the draft, Maddox is a solid prospect offensively and defensively.  At the plate, he’s got a compact swing with good bat speed that generates a lot of power.  His plate discipline is said to be average, and he has shown he can hit with wood bats.  At catcher, he’s got solid game calling and receiving skills and has a strong arm (clocks 95 on the gun).  However, there are two issues to deal with.  The first is that Maddox is already six-four and if he continues to grow, there are questions as to whether or not he’ll outgrow catching.  The second is that he’s got a strong Florida commitment, which could up the price.   Still, even if he outgrows being a backstop, the bat will play anywhere.  It’s a lot more likely that Maddox will stay at catcher than Hank Conger, who I think is probably going to become a DH due to health issues.

25th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Yankees For Mark Teixeira)

• Tim Wheeler (CF), Sacramento State
• Previous Mock:  Beau Wright (LHP), California High School
• One of the few college positional players with upside, Wheeler is overlooked because of the fact he plays for a small school.  However, he’s an athletic player that shows great power, and is able to get on base.  He has some speed and could be a legitimate 20-20 guy in the majors.  However, he’s limited to an outfield corner, and the question remains whether or not playing in a smaller conference influences Wheeler’s stats.  Still, the tools are there, and they’re enough to get him drafted in the sandwich round, if not the late first. 

26th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers

• D.J. LeMahieu (SS), Louisiana State
• Previous Mock:  Max Stassi (C), California High School
• Lamahieu stands out in what is regarded to be an incredibly weak college positional player class.  A draft eligible sophomore, LaMahieu is an excellent athlete that possesses a quick, easy swing.  This allows him to make great contact, and he’s been one of the top college hitters this year.  He’s got average, not outstanding power, but the issue with him is that he’s probably not a shortstop.  He’s a large kid with average range, but he’s got a strong arm and enough range to move to third base.  However, his power ceiling isn’t enough for that position, so second base might be best.  All in all, he’s an interesting prospect that should take advantage of this weak college class to become a first rounder.

27th Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation From The Philadelphia Phillies For Raul Ibanez)

• Deven Marrero (SS), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School
• American Heritage (Plantation, Fla.) shortstop Deven Marrero went 2-for-3 on Tuesday and is hitting .405/.472/.747 with seven home runs but a substandard 10-13 BB/K ratio in 23 games. Marrero is generally considered the second-best prep shortstop behind Jiovanni Mier of Bonita HS in LaVerne, Calif.
• The latest of the Marrero clan (brother Chris and…well Chris, are in the Nationals and White Sox systems, respectively).  Despite this pedigree, he’s completely different from his brothers.  He’s regarded to be a solid defensive shortstop, but he’s not as big as either of his brothers.  He has some solid power potential, but it’s hampered a bit by average bat speed.  He should become a decent, but not great, stolen base threat.  However, he is showing an improved approach at the plate (it’s still not great, but better than he was hitting last year).  I think he’ll probably be the second high school shortstop taken, though the issue with him is that the Mariners will have to buy him off of the Hurricanes, to whom he’s commited to.  

28th Overall - The Boston Red Sox

• Luke Bailey (C), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School
• Probably the most complete catcher of the draft, Bailey shows above average skill at the plate and behind it.  He’s a solid receiver that calls a good game and has good movement behind the bag.  He has a solid swing and shows good power, but not great.  None of his tools are plus, which makes him different from Max Stassi and Austin Maddox, who I thought higher of, but he showed enough tools to merit being a Top 15 selection.  Or at least, he did before news came out that he needed Tommy John Surgery.  While it’s not serious for a catcher, as he could probably DH in the minors, it does affect his draft status.  Overall, I think he’ll get popped by Boston, who will see him as a value pick, or by New York, who would get an above average pickup near the end of the first round.  If he doesn’t get picked, I think he goes to Auburn.

29th Overall - The Tampa Bay Rays

• Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Jason Stoffel (RHP), Arizona
• A toolsy outfielder, Marisnick is a heck of an athlete.  He’s quick, has good power potential, and has a strong arm in center.  As far as defense, he’s got solid defensive ability.  However, he’s also very raw and would require a lot of development time to harness his tools into performance.  Overall, the talent is still star level, and he probably will sign for a little over slot.  Tampa does an incredible job of turning tools guys into players, and they should be able to make the most of him.

30th Overall - The New York Yankees (Compensation For Gerrit Cole)

• Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• Previous Mock:  Beau Wright (LHP), California High School
• The choice for the Rockies here is easy, as Oliver is the last of the elite college arms.  Oliver has a solid repertoire, with a low 90’s fastball, a curveball that could be a plus pitch, and a changeup as well.  However, his changeup and curveball are both behind the fastball, and his command isn’t great despite good mechanics.  However, he does generate good groundball rates.  All in all, he requires some work, but he’s got Number Two starter upside.  Right now, the Yankees make some sense, who could overpay him in order to get him into the system.

31st Overall - The Chicago Cubs

• Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern
• Previous Mock:  Brett Jackson (CF/RHP), Cal
• Shields hasn’t quite hit for the power I expected, but he’s been respectable enough that he won’t drop out of the first round.  Shields is regarded to be an average shortstop, with average speed and range.  He’s not a standout defender, but he isn’t bad at shortstop and could remain there with some work on his defensive fundamentals.  Where Shields stands out is with his bat.  He’s got good bat speed and some power for a infield bat.  In time, you might be able to get something similar to a taller Dustin Pedroia.

 32nd Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation From The Los Angeles Angels For Brian Fuentes)

• Sam Dyson (RHP), South Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Same
• A draft eligible sophomore, Dyson will have his name called out on the first day.  Dyson has good size to remain a starter.  He also has some of the best stuff in this draft.  Dyson throws in the low 90’s, touching 98 on occasion.  He compliments this with a sharp hammer curveball that gives him at least a bullpen arsenal.  However, Dyson has several flaws.  For starters, he’s had some arm problems in the past, and already has a Tommy John to his name.  He also lacks a second offspeed pitch, with his changeup being a work in progress.  However, he is aggressive on the mound, and when he’s on, he’s easily one of the most higher ceiling players in the draft.  In terms of where I think he’ll go, because of his status as a draft eligible sophomore, he has some leverage to gain a higher bonus.  I think he’s a first rounder, but probably toward the end.   

 Reader Prospects (Unranked Right Now)

• Colton Cain (LHP/1B), Texas High School
• Round Potential:  Sandwich First Round, Potentially Could Move To Late First
• Cain is all about the power, both as a positional player and as a pitcher.  As a first baseman, Cain has a good swing, good power, and is able to draw some walks as well.  He’s got a strong arm at first (obviously), but isn’t fast and is limited strictly to first base as a defender.  As a pitcher, Cain throws in the high 80’s, touching 92 at times, and throws a good curveball as well.  He also has a changeup, but it’s weak at the moment.  All in all, he’s probably one of the top lefties in the prep class.  However, several factors work against him.  First off, at 6-3, 230, he’s going to be seen as a durable pitcher with a strong frame, but scouts are also going to question how much projection he has left.  Second, he’s got a college commitment to Texas, and they are pretty good at keeping their higher rated recruits.  So we’ll see where he goes, but I do think he’s a first rounder, but I also think it’s going to take some good coin to sign him away from Austin.  But he will probably be in the recommendations for draft rooms beginning at 26 with Milwaukee.

• Mark Krauss (OF/3B/1B), Ohio
• Round Potential:  First Day Pick
• A solidly built guy, Krauss plays a multitude of positions for the Redhawks.  He has a quick bat and hits for some good power.  He is also patient and uses the entire field.  However, he’s regarded to be only average defensively, which hurts his draft stock a bit.  It really depends on where a team sees him.  He should be a steal in the lower rounds, and I’ll guess he probably goes in the third.  Still, he’s pretty nifty in a Kellen Kulbacki sort of way, who had similar knocks like Krauss and went in the sandwich first round in 2007.

• Montanous Walton (INF), Playball Academy
• Round Potential:  Middle Round (20th to 30th round) Pick
• Couldn’t find much about him except for the fact that he has speed, but has also had some severe injury history.  Will have to dig some more to see what I can find him.

Link Of Note

By the way, if you want to hear about the downside for draft picks holding out for the huge coin that agents (not always Scott Bora$) promise, read this story about Matt Harrington, once thought to be the next best thing as a pitching process, who now works at Costco.  It’s a tragic story, especially when you realize how much the agents, media, and even his own father all wound up derailling his future.  Next to Brien Taylor, who was regarded to be one of the best high school pitching prospects ever, Harrington’s story is probably the most sad and disappointing.

Comments (12)

Morisato’s 2009 MLB Mock Draft Version 2.0

April 15, 2009 at 8:38 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, AL Central, AL East, AL West, MLB, NL Central, NL East, NL West

Well, with the draft now less than two months away, I thought it would be good to update the mock draft, as well as reflect any changes in the draft order, as well as who is rising and falling (and also write one of the longest run on sentances to date.)   This is probably going to be the shortest versions of the mock draft, as Version 3.0, which will reflect the sandwich rounds, will be arriving in about ten days.  So, for the time being, here is the Mock!!!.

1^st Overall - The Washington Nationals

• Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Strasburg is still the top guy, thanks to his impressive showing in Beijing and in his dominant start to the season.  Strasburg has a strong pitchers build, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, touching 100 on occasions.  His fastball has good movement on it as well.  He keeps his velocity deep into games, and his command is solid.  He also has two other quality pitches in his changeup and his slider.  He has great command over his stuff and has a great mound presence.  However, there are some red flags coming up on Strasburg recently, mainly in his mechanics and pitching motion.  Driveline Mechanics did a study on Strasburg, and found his mechanics to be troubling.  The comparison that they came up with was of Mark Prior, which isn’t a great comp to pull up.  They predict that he’ll probably lose velocity in time, and eventually have to have a major shoulder injury.  Overall, he’s a solid prospect, and if he really is the ticking time bomb that Driveline Mechanics described him as, he’ll probably be useful until Scott Boras takes him to free agency.  Now that Leatherpants is gone, Mike Rizzo is likely in charge.  Rizzo never shied away from high priced talent in Arizona, and this isn’t going to change in Washington.  He’ll get taken with the top pick and should rise really quickly.  There’s even talk that he could start for whoever picks, and in my opinion, he could. 

2nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

• Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Grant Green (SS), USC
• Grant Green’s start to the season has me dropping him from the Mariners, who will instead take the next best pitcher in the draft.  White isn’t quite as polished as Strasburg is, but he too has solid stuff.  White throws in the low 90’s and is able to touch 95.  Also in his favor is that his fastball has plenty of sink to it.  He throws a slider that is just as effective, and has an average breaking ball, I think a changeup.  He works quickly and his delivery is solid.  There are some questions if he’s an ace, but overall, he should at least be a solid Number Two. 

3rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

• Grant Green (SS), USC
• Previous Mock:  Alex White (RHP), North Carolina
• Green has had a inconsistent start to the season that so far sees his bat and his glove take a step back.  So, he will likely fall, probably to San Diego at three.  Normally, Green is an excellent defender with good range and soft hands.  He’s a quality athlete and while he lacks elite speed, he is an effective base runner.  He lacks significant power, and doesn’t walk real often.  It’s possible he could be a 20-20 guy if he’s able to tap into his power potential, but right now, with him having trouble getting his bat and glove alive, he’s going to start dropping.

4^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

• Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• Previous Mock:  Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• I considered whether or not to go with Crow’s upside or Gibson’s safety here.  I figured, the hell with it, and went with Crow this time around, not that Gibson’s done anything to drop him.  Selected with the 9th overall pick by Washington, Crow, his negotiators, and the Washington Front Office all had a comedy of errors that resulted in Crow returning to the draft.  I’ve used to think that his delivery makes him a ticking time bomb, but he does repeat the delivery well.  The success of pitchers like Tim Lincecum has made it a bit easier to take a shot on guys with unusual deliveries.  Crow has great stuff.  He throws a fastball with good movement that clocks in the high 90’s.  He couples it with a bastard slider and a changeup that rates around average.  He pounds the strike zone, but his command is a bit off because of his funky delivery.  Still, the tools are there for him to be a potential big leaguer, possibly a good two, or even a one if the changeup and command improve.   We’ll see what happens once the American Association starts up in May.

5th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

• Donovan Tate (OF), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Tate is one of the best raw athletes in the system.  He’s got all of the five tools and good bloodlines (dad was Donovan Tate).  He’s also a highly regarded football recruit, so it’s going take a lot to buy him out to baseball.  He’s got some potential as a pitcher, as he throws 95, but his future is in the outfield.  He’s got good pitch recognition and massive power potential.  He has the speed, arm and rage for him to be an elite defensive centerfielder.  What he does lack, however, is plate discipline.  So he does have some risk to him, but his potential is through the roof.  All in all, he’s got more upside than Givens, which makes him a good pick here.

6th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

• Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Ackley is possibly the best hitter available in this draft.  However, despite his good plate discipline and solid speed, he’s still been limited to first base due to recovery from Tommy John.  However, he is slowly transitioning back to the outfield and has even begun displaying a power spike recently.  He’s rising, and it’s possible that Ackley will break into the Top Five in the next mock.  He’d be perfect for San Francisco, though keeping an eye on his defensive play continues to bear watching. 

7th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

• Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School
• Atlanta’s pick with it’s highest pick in years, so why not make it count.  They do have their choice of the remaining college pitchers, like Gibson and Kendrall Volz, but I think they’ll got with the top high school lefty in the draft, Matzek.  At six three, he shows lots of projection, but already has three pitches that project to be above average pitches.  He throws around 90, touching 94 at times, while mixing in a curveball that is a borderline plus pitch.  He also shows a solid slider and an idea of a changeup.  Overall, he’s got the potential to be a Number Two Starter and is thought to be a relatively safe pick in terms of bust potential.  Some rate Matthew Purke as the better arm, but Matzek is a bit safer, with little drop off. 

8th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

• Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
• Previous Mock:  Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats
• There are several options that the Pirates could go for.  Aaron Crow is a solid option here, though he would be just a slight overdraft.  They could also go for the top high school athletes in Donovan Tate or Mychal Givens.  However, I think that they’ll draft Crow’s former teammate Kyle Gibson.  Due to Aaron Crow’s dominance, a lot of people forgot about Gibson.  Gibson has a low 90’s fastball with some sink.  He also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which are solid pitches as well.  His command is average and his impressive height (6′6″), gives his stuff extra sink and movement.  However, the same problem I had with Crow is the same problem I have with Gibson: the delivery.  While Crow had that funky chicken wing type delivery, Gibson has a delivery similar to another big leaguer: Tim Lincecum.  Like Lincecum, Gibson seems to slingshot the ball, but like Lincecum, he repeats the delivery well.  Of the two, while Crow has the better velocity, Gibson is the more complete pitcher, so I would take him.  Matthew Purke is also an option here. 

9th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

• Matt Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock:  Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• The Tigers are fortunate in this mock, as they’ll likely be getting either Purke or Aaron Crow.  In this mock, I’ve got them taking Purke.  The other top lefty pitcher in this draft, Purke has a power pitcher’s frame at 6-4, and throws a big fastball that sits in the low 90’s, clocking as high as 94. One nice think about his fastball is that it has good sink.  His breaking stuff isn’t far along right now, as his slider and curve could be quite solid once they are refined.  He also throws a Vulcan changeup, but like many high school pitchers, he doesn’t use it much.  His delivery draws a lot of disagreements.  Some say it’s effortless, others say that it’s a reliever’s delivery.  He also lacks control over his stuff, which hurts him further.  Still, he’s a quality-pitching prospect with loads of projection, provided he harnesses his impressive stuff.

10th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

• Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Matt Graham (RHP), Texas High School
• This one was a tough one, and with the Nationals are back on the board, and they will have their choice between the top college lefty or the beginnings of the top of the prep class.  With Strasburg already in the fold, the Nationals might choose one of the prep bats in an effort to keep some money free to sign some other guys in the lower rounds.  That doesn’t mean they won’t get a top talent.  Matt Davidson is the top prep bat in this draft.  He is a big kid that might not remain at the hot corner, but his bat is good.   His best tool is his bat, his power potential in particular, which is among the highest among the prep bats in this drat class.  In addition, he also makes decent contact and has shown the beginnings of some plate discipline.  There have been some reports that he has improved his defense to the point where he’s tolerable, and could be acceptable in time.  So, Davidson is my pick here…for now anyway.

11th Overall - The Colorado Rockies

• Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State
• Previous Mock:  Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School
• The choice for the Rockies here is easy, as Oliver is the last of the elite college arms.  Oliver has a solid repertoire, with a low 90’s fastball, a curveball that could be a plus pitch, and a changeup as well.  However, his changeup and curveball are both behind the fastball, and his command isn’t great despite good mechanics.  However, he does generate good groundball rates.  All in all, he requires some work, but he’s got Number Two starter upside.  Look for the Rockies to pay up, as he’s potentially a good fit for their ballpark.

12th Overall - The Kansas City Royals

• Kendall Volz (RHP), Baylor
• Previous Mock:  Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State
• It’s difficult to be the Royals here, as they have needs all over the plate that they could go after.  They could go with Robbie Shields or a prep arm, but my guess is that they’ll go after a power arm.  Enter Volz, who is a big pitcher that throws a sinking fastball in the low 90’s.  He has a curveball with plenty of break that couples with his sinker.  He also throws a curveball that could be a average or better pitch, and it has plenty of break when he commands it well.  That’s his biggest issue, as that he’s so inconsistent.  However, his mechanics aren’t bad and he could be an above average starter once he gets his stuff together.  All in all, it’s a good pick, and one better than what I had them taking. 

 13th Overall - The Oakland Athletics

• Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Shields has been doing well lately, so I see no reason to change my projection.  Oakland lacks any sort of shortstop talent, as many of their shortstop prospects are likely going to have to move to third or second base.  Fortunately, one of the better shortstop prospects around is Robbie Shields.  He hasn’t been seen in any extended action by scouts due to his hand injuries that limited him in the Cape Cod League.  Overall, he’s regarded to be an average shortstop, with average speed and range.  He’s not a standout defender, but he isn’t bad at shortstop and could remain there with some work on his defensive fundamentals.  Where Shields stands out is with his bat.  He’s got good bat speed and a lot of pop for a middle infielder.  Overall, he’s been compared to Aaron Hill.

14th Overall - The Texas Rangers

• Shelby Miller (RHP), Texas High School
• Previous Mock:  Matt Purke (LHP), Texas High School
• The Rangers are in a curious spot here, as there isn’t a lot to like in the positional player prospects at this point, nor are there any elite college arms left to take.  And, with my last favorite for the Rangers, Purke, going to Detroit, look for the Rangers to take another Texas pitcher.  Miller is a solid young pitcher who shows excellent stuff.  His fastball clocks in the low 90’s, touching 96 with some sink.  He also throws a curveball with good movement and throws a raw changeup as well.  However, his command is below average and he rushes his delivery a bit, according to Keith Law.  However, he’s got a power pitcher’s frame, and has room to add more mass, and possibly add velocity, as he gets older.  Overall, he’s not a bad pick and the Rangers could do worse than to add another high upside arm to the system.

 15th Overall - The Cleveland Indians

• Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State
• Previous Mock:  Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee
• Tottle was impressive in the Cape Cod League this year, where he served as Falmouth’s closer.  He easily has some of the best stuff in the draft.  His fastball clocks in the mid 90’s, touching 98 with regularity.  He also has one of the best slider’s in the draft.  However, Tootle also has his faults.  His breaking ball is vulnerable to left handers and his fastball is straight.  Plus, his mechanics are a bit violent, making some considering him to be a reliever.  But overall, he’s a live arm and one that deserves to get taken in this spot.  The Indians will probably be temped enough to take him here. 

16th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks

• Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Matt Davidson (3B), California High School
• Similar to Aaron Hicks from last year, Givens has potential both ways as a starter or as a shortstop.  As a pitcher, he throws a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and a changeup and curveball that do have some potential.  However, he doesn’t have a great feel for his pitches, which hurts his stock.  As a hitter, Givens has most of the five tools.  He’s an athletic middle infielder with solid range and some speed, and solid power potential that could increase, as he gets older.  His makeup is said to be good by the good guys over at now defunct Saber Scouting, who also point out many of Givens’ flaws.  Givens is a shorter player, under six feet and his swing is long and complicated, which results in strikeouts and problems making contact.  He’s also quite raw with the bat, and will need work to prevent him from swinging and missing at everything he sees.  Still, tools guys are popular among scouts and organizations and the Diamondbacks will probably be enamored enough with his upside to pop him here.

17th Overall - Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation From The Los Angeles Dodgers For Orlando Hudson)

• Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia
• Previous Mock:  Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints (Dodgers)
• The big Georgia First Baseman has been one of the best hitters in the SEC, and was overshadowed a bit last season by shortstop Gordon Beckham, now with the Chicago White Sox.  Poythress is a terror at the plate.  He has power to all fields and could become a 40 home run threat in the majors.  He should hit for average in the majors, and he’s able to draw an huge amount of walks.  He’s not a great athlete and lacks speed, which could cause some fitness concerns as he gets older because he’s just so huge.  He’s played third base in the past, but he’s a superb defender at first base, with good range and hands.  All in all, he’s a steal here at Arizona, but there is a chance he might not be here, with the rate that he’s rising up draft boards.

 18th Overall - The Florida Marlins

• Jiovanni Mier (SS), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• One of the top prep bats, and one of the only up the middle talents in this draft, Mier has great potential and did well for Team USA during the previous summer.  He’s an athletic shortstop with solid projection all across the board.  He’s a good shortstop, showing a strong arm, good range, and hands.  As a hitter, he has a smooth swing and good bat speed.  He’s more of a gap hitter right now, but that could develop into twenty home run power in the future.  He also has above average speed as well.  Overall, the tools are there for him to become an above average regular at shortstop.  He also shows a little bit of talent as a pitcher, as he hits the low 90’s and shows a good, not great breaking ball.  He has committed to USC, but he won’t hit an inning for the Trojans. 

19th Overall - The St. Louis Cardinals

• Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami
• Previous Mock:  Ryan Wheeler (1B/3B), Loyola Marymount
• The Cardinals are in a difficult spot here, as there really isn’t a slam dunk pick that they can go after like they did in previous drafts.  However, they lack significant up the middle talent, and one of the better talents here, and more underrated ones, is the Hurricane’s shortstop.  Jackson was one of the unsung heros of that Miami offense that was powered by Yonder Alonso.  In terms of his potential, he’s regarded to be one of the best defensive shortstops in college baseball thanks to his athleticism, speed and hands.  As for his glove, he doesn’t have home run power, but could have some potential as a doubles hitter.  His plate discipline is solid and he makes good contact with the baseball.  All in all, he’s not in the category of Green or Shields, but he is a decent prospect that is beginning to get some first round notice.  The Cardinals could also chase after some of the other high school arms that are available if they so choose to.  It also should be noted that I got a lot of hate for the Wheeler pick in the last mock, so hopefully Cardinals fans will not trash me as hard for this pick.

 20th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays

• Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee
• Previous Mock:  Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M
• A draft eligible sophomore, Davis earns a lot of comparisons to Kirby Puckett (more skin color related than anything).  Davis is short at 5-9, but he’s got tremendous strength, that coupled with a good swing should allow for him to hit for good power.  He’s also a solid runner.  The only deal is that he’s likely to remain in left and many scouts are a bit lukewarm about him because most of his value is wrapped up in his bat.  All in all, he’s a solid pick.  The Blue Jays might be attracted to his stat line, and he is a kid that likely won’t remain long in the minors as well.  That would enable them to eventually move Adam Lind to first base, have Travis Snider at DH, with Davis, Wells and Rios in the outfield. 

21st Overall - The Houston Astros

• Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School
• Previous Mock:  Same
• The Astros did a decent job at adding projectable high school arms in last year’s draft.  In this case, the Astros should continue the process by adding another one.  A tall pitcher, Wheeler has been clocked in the low 90’s and showed good command over a curveball and what I think might be a slider.  He’s got loads of projection, with many people thinking he could gain more velocity in time.  Overall, he’s yet another example of some of the power arms available in this draft, and one that the Astros shouldn’t pass on.

22nd Overall - The Minnesota Twins

• Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School
• Previous Mock:  Beau Wright (LHP), California High School
• Another intriguing young arm, Turner is a power right-hander that ranks up there with the top arms of the draft.  Turner has a power pitcher’s frame and attacks hitters with a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s with some sink.  He has two above average pitches in his curveball and a changeup.  He’s got solid command and a nice, easy delivery.  Many have compared him to Tim Melville, which isn’t quite fair, as Melville was a borderline top 10 talent.  Still, he’s a solid prospect with low bust potential that should make a team happy. 

 23rd Overall - The Chicago White Sox

• Austin Maddox (C), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Regarded to be one of the best high school catchers in the draft, Maddox is a solid prospect offensively and defensively.  At the plate, he’s got a compact swing with good bat speed that generates a lot of power.  His plate discipline is said to be average, and he has shown he can hit with wood bats.  At catcher, he’s got solid game calling and receiving skills and has a strong arm (clocks 95 on the gun).  However, there are two issues to deal with.  The first is that Maddox is already six-four and if he continues to grow, there are questions as to whether or not he’ll outgrow catching.  The second is that he’s got a strong Florida commitment, which could up the price.   Still, even if he outgrows being a backstop, the bat will play anywhere.

24th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Mets For Francisco Rodriguez)

• Previous Mock:  Brett Jackson (CF), California (Mets)
• Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M
• You are pretty much gambling on Wilson to recover from Tommy John as he goes along, but he is still a potential top of the first round talent to take a shot on.  He throws in the low 90’s, touching 96 at times.  He also throws a slider that is a solid out pitch.  He also throws a changeup that is at least average.  However, his command isn’t back yet and his delivery is violent, but overall he’s got the potential to be a huge steal if he recovers well.  He’s a great pick here for the Angels, who have had a history of success of bringing back injured pitchers and turning them into something great. 

25th Overall - The Los Angeles Angels (Compensation From The New York Yankees For Mark Teixeira)

• Beau Wright (LHP), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami (Yankees)
• Yet another example of the depth in prep pitching in this draft, Wright is a southpaw that is a respectable pitcher as a prospect.  He works in the low 90’s in terms of velocity, and compliments it with a big breaking curveball.  He’ll need a third pitch to develop into a starter, but he does have fairly advanced command and a feel for pitching.  All in all, he’s not quite in the class of Purke or Matzek, but he’s a good prospect that should blossom in this system.

 26th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers

• Max Stassi (C), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Same
• Another highly regarded catcher in this class, Stassi is a different animal than Austin Maddox.  However, Stassi os more likely to remain behind the plate.  He’s a capable defender with a cannon of an arm.  As for his bat, he’s not the same hitter as Maddox, who has better power, but Stassi has some gap power and should hit for average.  Overall, he’s got the potential to sneak into the first round, and should be gone by Round 2.  The Brewers, who have a wealth of picks, will probably pick him somewhere near the end of the first round.

27th Overall - The Seattle Mariners (Compensation From The Philadelphia Phillies For Raul Ibanez)

• Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School
• Previous Mock:  Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School (Phillies)
• The pick they gained from Raul Ibanez, the Mariners could go a number of ways here.  A solid option would be to consider a solid prep hitter that can be developed slowly.  One of these, a hitter that’s come on in recent showcases, Borchering is a solid switch hitter that shows power from both sides of the plate.  His swing is very good, though he’s better from his left side.  However, he’s not very athletic and not a good third baseman, means that he’ll likely have to move to the outfield, or perhaps first base if he’s not able to handle it.  My own suggestion is that due to his arm strength, why not move him to catcher?  There are several third baseman that have been converted (with Russell Martin and Jorge Posada being the most well known.)

28th Overall - The Boston Red Sox

• Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School
• Previous Mock:  Daniel Webb (RHP), Okaloosa-Walton College
• A toolsy outfielder, Marisnick is a heck of an athlete.  He’s quick, has good power potential, and has a strong arm in center.  As far as defense, he’s got solid defensive ability.  However, he’s also very raw and would require a lot of development time to harness his tools into performance.  Overall, the talent is still star level, and he probably will sign for a little over slot.  That would probably appeal to Boston, who could then load up on signability cases later in the draft.

29th Overall - The Tampa Bay Rays

• Jason Stoffel (RHP), Arizona
• Previous Mock:  Chris Jenkins (RHP), New Jersey High School
• One of the top relievers in the draft, Stoffel has big enough stuff to potentially succeed as a starter as well.  He throws in the low 90’s, but his fastball has good life on it and induces a lot of ground balls.  His curveball is a plus pitch and when coupled with the fastball, gives him a great two pitch mix.  He has a changeup as well, but he hasn’t used it much in college.  As a closer, he has a bulldog mentality on the mound.  All in all, he might be able to succeed as a starter if given a shot, but he’s a bad ass as a closer.  He’s a nice pickup for Tampa. 

30th Overall - The New York Yankees (Compensation For Gerrit Cole)

• Chris Jenkins (RHP), New Jersey High School
• Previous Mock:  Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School
• The Rays actually could lose this pick if they decide to upgrade at DH and go after Raul Ibanez, like many are expecting them to do this off-season.  If they keep it, Jenkins is one of the last high quality prep arms on the table.  Jenkins is big at 6-6 and he throws 93, with rumors of him hitting 96 going on.  His secondary pitches aren’t there yet, making him essentially what Daniel Webb was last year.  All in all, he’s a good pickup.

31st Overall - The Chicago Cubs

• Brett Jackson (CF/RHP), Cal
• Previous Mock:  Chris Dominguez (3B/RHP), Louisville
• One of the better all around options is Cal’s Jackson.  Jackson is a two-way player, but his overall upside is that of a positional player.  Jackson is a solid athlete that could potentially be considered to be a first round pick.  He’s got some of the best power potential in the draft and is a solid outfielder with enough range and arm to stay in center.  His biggest flaw is that he’s so raw offensively, in spite of him having good tools.  Overall, he’s a player that gets the J.D. Drew comp in terms of physical tools.  He’s been a little inconsistent, but he’s a nifty pickup at the back of the first round for a team not looking to invest a lot in a high upside pick.  Oh lookie here… 

32nd Overall - The Colorado Rockies (Compensation From The Los Angeles Angels For Brian Fuentes)

• Sam Dyson (RHP), South Carolina
• Previous Mock:  Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia (Angels)
• A draft eligible sophomore, Dyson will have his name called out on the first day.  Dyson has good size to remain a starter.  He also has some of the best stuff in this draft.  Dyson throws in the low 90’s, touching 98 on occasion.  He compliments this with a sharp hammer curveball that gives him at least a bullpen arsenal.  However, Dyson has several flaws.  For starters, he’s had some arm problems in the past, and already has a Tommy John to his name.  He also lacks a second offspeed pitch, with his changeup being a work in progress.  However, he is aggressive on the mound, and when he’s on, he’s easily one of the most higher ceiling players in the draft.  In terms of where I think he’ll go, because of his status as a draft eligible sophomore, he has some leverage to gain a higher bonus.  I think he’s a first rounder, but probably toward the end.  

Stay tuned.  This edition of the mock isn’t going to be current for very long…

Comments (13)

Fantasy Baseball Invite Mofos!!!!

March 17, 2009 at 8:05 pm · Filed under 1

Since some of you don’t check your emails, I thought I’d post a invite right here.

I’ve got a Fantasy League started on Yahoo Sports, so far five spots out of twelve are filled up.  Step up, you all!  This is a Man’s League we’ve got going on over there.  I’ve seen some of you all multitask in several other leagues at once.  One more won’t make a difference!

Here’s the League ID and Password:

League ID#: 214087
Password: tacobell

Come on and join up Guys!  The more the merrier!

Comments (5)

The MLB Beginners Guide To General Managing - Rule One

February 21, 2009 at 12:17 am · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Atlanta Braves, Baseball, Brandon McCarthy, Chicago White Sox, John Danks, MLB, NL East, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays

As an ongoing attempt to rant on about baseball, and to hopefully try to stem the tide of shitty signings and trades, I thought I would write a handbook for the New Baseball GM to reference whenever the need arises.  A Baseball General Managing For Dunnies of sorts.  The collection will be placed in a seperate page at the top of the blog.  Onto Rule One

Rule One - Never Trade For A Pitcher That Kenny Williams Is Offering

No I’m not kidding.  While may seen to be an unfair generalization, the fact is that Williams has intentionally traded several pitchers that have been hurt over the course of his tenure.  While the criticism isn’t completely on Williams unless he intentionally prevented teams from doing their due dilligence (on second thought, that might be true as well), it’s still pretty underhanded.

Don’t believe me? 

Then take a look at these little gems:

• 2001 - Traded Mike Sirotka, Kevin Beirne, Mike Williams and Brian Simmons  To The Toronto Blue Jays For David Wells and Matt DeWitt - This was the first of many deals that got people’s attention, as many accused Williams of taking advantage of new Toronto GM Gord Ash.  Sirotka was supposed to be the headliner of the deal.  He never pitched again.  David Wells was mediocre, and promptly left at the end of the season to go back to New York.
• 2003 - Traded Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and Cash For Bartolo Colon and Jorge Nunoz - After weeks of Omar Minaya trying to trade Colon after giving up the farm for him, and after getting rebuffed by Boston after demanding Casey Fossum, Shea Hillenbrand and cash, the Expos instead flipped Colon to the White Sox after the White Sox acquired him in a trade from the Yankees.  Hernandez soon went down with shoulder injuries, and he never pitched an inning for the Expos.  Rocky Biddle was, well, Rocky Biddle.  
• 2006 - Traded Freddie Garcia To The Philadelphia Philles For Gio Gonzalez And Gavin Floyd - The Phillies thought they were getting a reliable innings eater for the middle of their rotation.  Instead, they got 58 innings of bad pitching until Garcia needed shoulder surgery, ending his season.  What’s worse, Floyd, a bust for the Phillies, put forth some semblance of usefulness for the White Sox, though I wouldn’t count on him continuing that long term.
• 2006 - Traded Brandon McCarthy To The Texas Rangers For John Danks - Still a controversial trade topic among Ranger fans because of the fact that Danks was followed throughout the system as he progressed.  However, Danks lacked a breaking ball, and was projecting to be a reliever or back of the rotation starter.  McCarthy, it was felt, was already a developed pitcher and had proven he had the stuff to be a Number Two starter.  Not only has McCarthy been hurt every season since he arrived to Texas, but Danks, thanks to the addition of a cutter, has become one of the best young starters in the game.
• 2007 - Traded Faustino De Los Santos, With Gio Gonzalez And Ryan Sweeney To The Oakland A’s For Nick Swisher - The White Sox acquired Swisher, hoping to add patience to their lineup, for their top two pitching prospects and their outfield bust.  De Los Santos required Tommy John Surgery shortly after the beginning of the season.  

So yeah, for any of you new or future GM’s out there, a word of advice.

Stay the hell away from Kenny Williams’ pitching rotation.  Do not inquire about it and don’t answer the phone when he calls you offering a piece from it.  You’re probably going to get screwed hard.

The Braves are probably keeping a close eye on Javier Vasquez as we speak.

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Post-Vacation Thoughts - A-Rod, Andruw Jones, Ben Sheets, Draft Dodgers

February 10, 2009 at 11:14 pm · Filed under 2009 MLB Draft, Baseball, Ben Sheets, NL Central, Texas Rangers

Well, time to get caught up on the recent comings and goings of the weekend.

I would talk A-Rod, but many of the other guys on the blog network have already covered it better than I will.  All I can say about it is the following:

1. As a Rangers fan, I’m a little pissed off that he’s blaming the contract for essentially driving him into the arms of steroids.  That’s just bullshit.  In my honest opinion, he probably was already experimenting with them before that point, but the contract gave him a conveinent out to pursue it.
2. Sports Illustrated seems determined to go on with a steroids witch hunt, it seems.  All I have seen coming from that magazine is numerous accusations, but no real solutions being suggested for solving the problem.  Combined with my already dislike for the magazine thanks to the horrific article that they did slamming the Texas-Western Miners after their NCAA championship as thugs and paid players, and Jon Heyman’s love affair with Scott Boras, and it just makes me even more glad that my subscription lapsed almost ten years ago.
3. Rodriguez does get a cookie for coming clean.  It’s better to admit the use than just play the Raffy Palmeiro card.  
4. FInally, the New York media is blowing this out of proportion.  The suggestion that the Yankees should eat the nearly $200 million left on his contract so that they can “regain” their integrity is bullshit.  Rodriguez is still a vital part of that offense, and Captain Jetes, for all of his intangible awesomeness, isn’t a power hitter, or a great defender for that matter.  And finally, who in God’s name would you get to play third base?  Jeter isn’t moving until he’s good and ready.  Joe Crede and his back made of Balsa wood?  Scott Rolen, who Toronto would probably love to pawn off on someone.  Resurrecting the remains of Scott Brosius?  Who the hell really knows.  The only reasonable solution would be to trade for Adrian Beltre from Seattle, who would likely come at the cost of a good prospect AND accepting one of the two bad contracts belonging to Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista.  Then again, it is New York.  Nothing makes fucking sense there.  Really.

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Consequently, another Boras client is also trying to redeem his image, though of a different style.  Andruw Jones has agreed to a Minor League deal with a invitation to Spring Training.  He will earn $500,000 if he makes the team, plus another $1 million in potential incentives.  He’s apparently droppped 25 pounds (how many times have we heard that before).  What is a bit more relevant is that he impressed hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo during a workout last month, ultimately choosing the Rangers over the Yankees because of Jaramillo.  

I’ve heard the argument that the Rangers shouldn’t have done this because the Rangers already have several outfielders and this could cause them to drop one.

However, let’s take a closer look at what the Rangers have:

• Josh Hamilton - Obviously a roster lock, he’ll roam center, right and DH.
• Julio Borbon - He’s in Double A.  Could be an option next year.
• Marlon Byrd - Byrd’s a lock, and this is his walk year.  He’s a favorite of Ron Washington’s and will likely split time in center and right field.
• Nelson Cruz - Cruz will likely be the starting left fielder for a while, but let’s face it.  Cruz has done jack shit when given his opportunities, so excuse me if my enthusiasm for him is low after a good 130 at bats.  He’ll probably make the squad.
• Frank Catalonotto - It’s not a lock that Cat will still be on the team this year.  Lots of people are pointing to his $4 million price tag and ability to play first base.  I think the Rangers would probably use Hank Blalock at first when needed and place Hamilton or Davis at DH if needed.
• Greg Golson - Probably the starting centerfielder at Oklahoma.  
• Brandon Boggs - Here is the one guy the Rangers might cut on the 40 Man roster if Jones shows some semblance of his former self.  Boggs is a pretty nice little backup outfielder, but nothing to get too worked up about if he’s lost on waivers.  
• David Murphy - The current backup outfielder, Murphy has a hard core legion of fans at the Rangers front office.  He’s a rather solid backup outfielder, so I don’t expect him going anywhere.  

The Rangers have other moving parts to deal with as well.  Eric Hurley and Joaquin Benoit are out for the season (or in Benoit’s case, can be assumed as such), and Travis Metcalf probably wouldn’t get claimed on waivers if he’s dropped.  Joaquin Arias still has some admirers and could get traded for something down in the nether regions of the minors.  

Back to the question at hand.  Does Jones have something left?  

Tough to say.  If there is any coach out there that could do it, it’s Rudy.  He’s had success with reclamation projects like Marlon Byrd, Mark DeRosa, Gary Matthews Jr., Rod Barajas, and maybe you can count Milton Bradley in there too (though Bradley has had the talent to hit like that for a while now.)  

Jones probably has the talent to be an above average major league for at least another five years if he’s commited.  The problem is that we haven’t seen it for at least two.  However, I think there is probably about a 70% he makes the roster (along with Eddie Guardado, Brendan Donnelly, Omar Vizquel, and bullpen arsonist Derrick Turnbow), with the placing of Eric Hurley and Joaquin Benoit on the 60 day DL’s to make room for Guardado and Donnelly, and the designation of assignment of Travis Metcalf, Brandon Boggs, and Frank Catalonotto to make room for the other three (though Boggs and Metcalf will probably clear waivers…unless Pittsburgh or Cincinnati decide to get cute on the waiver wire.)

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One other thing that’s on my mind is Ben Sheets, who apparently was almost a Texas Ranger until it was revealed that he needed elbow surgery, costing him all of 2009.  

I wonder if, in this case, it might be worthwhile to do the Jon Leiber experiment that New York did a few years back.

Texas should sign Sheets to a two year deal with an option.  Have a low salary for the rehab year (about half to three quarter million), a good salary for year two, the hopefully healthy one ($10 or $11 million), with a option for year three to pay the Rangers back for the procedure and the rehab.  

I don’t know if Casey Close, Sheets’ agent, will go for it (he’s also been at the center of some shinnanegans with Ryan Howard), but it would be the best path for all parties.  Sheets would get his surgery paid for, would be allowed to rehab at Rangers facilities and get some work with his old pitching coach Mike Maddux not far from home.  The Rangers would get a potential benefit in 2010, when about $16.76 million in contracts leave the books (potentially $38.76 if Millwood and Padilla disappoint) and about that time, the Rangers would begin to realize some of the fruits of their farm system, with Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland potentially in the starting rotation.

As for Sheets, it’s potentially a lot more security for him, as he would not be getting anything close to that quality of an offer if he takes 2009 off, returns in 2010, and finds himself getting a lot of small offers with a huge amount of incentives being asked.

However, like most of my ideas, this one is likely history.

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Interesting note that I found from Peter Gammon’s, Via MLB Trade Rumors

“The L.A. scouting department has been told it will not draft Boras clients come June.”

Wow!

The Dodgers decision to not draft any Boras cleints in the upcoming draft is a signficant one. For starters, it limits the draft pool that you have to choose from. Boras represents a large portion of the name prospects in the upcoming draft, and is going to request huge money for his clients regardless of where they are picked in hopes of getting his players to fall to higher income teams. The DOdgers have typically had success in the draft regardless of representation, so they should be okay.

However, it does represent a growing disenchantment with Boras, who has seen several teams now avoid his talent pool. Boston is clearly miffed at him over the issues with Jason Varitek, Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez. The White Sox have avoided Boras cleints for the past few years now.

So far, I can come up with a short list of teams that probably will avoid Boras’ clan in the June:

• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Chicago White Sox
• Pittsburgh Pirates (The Pedro Alvarez drama has probably left a bad taste in their mouth)
• Florida Marlins (Cheap Asses)
• Houston Astros (Haven’t invested in the draft much)

All in all, the 2009 Draft is looking a little more interesting each day.

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Top Ten Remaining Free Agents

January 27, 2009 at 4:59 pm · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Adam Dunn, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Ben Sheets, Chicago White Sox, Florida Marlins, Houston Astros, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Cruz, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Milwaukee Brewers, NL Central, NL East, NL West, Oakland Athletics, Orlando Hudson, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers

Well, with football season winding down and pitchers and catchers set to report soon, let’s take a look at the top ten remaining free agents on the market, and who I think will wind up where.

#1 - Ben Sheets (RHP), Former Milwaukee Brewer

Of the bunch that is left on the free agent market, Sheets is definately starting to look like he’ll be an excellent buy low proposition.  Sheets wants a two year deal, and he’s worth, at the least, about $10 million a year.  Sheets has the best stuff of any guy that’s on the list, but his medical history in recent years has held him back.  He also costs a draft pick, which limits his attractiveness to other teams available, who are reluctant to lost their first rounder.  In all honesty, teams in the top fifteen that have recieved compensation picks should look into making a two year deal for him.  Right now, the only team that has expressed any sort of interest in him is Texas, who wants him on a one year deal.  Sheets wants at least two.  With the Rangers losing about $10 million in salary next year with the contracts of Frank Catalonotto, Joaquin Benoit, and Marlon Byrd leaving the books, the Rangers can afford to offer a two year deal for the ace.  Texas would lose their second rounder, but they have a sandwich pick thanks to the Cubs signing Milton Bradley.  Sheets also wouldn’t block any prospects long term, and the Rangers could potentially clear more payroll depending on the performances of Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla (though in the wake of the current economic climate, I’m beginning to think both options will be declined.)  This is also the sort of signing that would be beneficial to Shooter’s Pirates, though I doubt that they’ll go for it.  Final Prediction:  The Rangers swallow their pride and sign Sheets for two years, $21 million, give or take.

#2 - Juan Cruz (RHP), Former Arizona Diamondback

If there is a player on this list that the compensation process fucked over (not Jason Varitek, that’s his own damn fault), it’s Cruz, who came off a stellar year and was arguably the top reliever on the market.  However, with more teams leery of paying big bucks for relievers while costing a draft pick, Cruz is left without a team.  Cruz is very valuable as a setup man and could also be groomed as a closer.  However, the pick compensation just kills his market.  Final Prediciton:  Cruz returns to the Diamondbacks for one year, $2 million.

#3 - Orlando Hudson (2B), Former Arizona Diamondback

The compensation has partially depressed Hudson’s value, but the bigger issue is that I don’t think teams are willing to commit huge bucks to a second baseman that has had his season cut short two years in a row thanks to leg injuries.  When he’s on, Hudson has good speed and contact ability as a number two hitter, and his defense is top notch.  If Luis Castillo’s contract wasn’t on the books for the Mets, there is a good chance he would have been there already.  If I had to make a choice right now, the only possible fit I can think of would probably be him would be the Cardinals, who could use his glove and, let’s be honest, they got horrible internal options.  Final Prediction:    Signs With St. Louis For 1 year, $3 million.

#4 - Adam Dunn (LF/1B), Former Arizona Diamondback

The Snakes’ decision not to offer Dunn arbitration is looking like a good one, as Dunn is also still fairly employed despite the fact that he is fairly productive in spite of the fact he strikes out and hits lower than the amount of change floating in Miracle’s pocket.  Dunn can hit for huge power and is a good on base prescence.  However, he’s also a horrific defender in left field and only slightly less so at first base.  However, Dunn does have a market of one…former GM Jim “Leatherpants” Bowden.  Final Prediction:  Dunn signs a 3 year, $33 million deal with the Nationals to play first base, since Nick Johnson appears to be made out of Balsa Wood and Dmitri Young continues to destroy the clubhouse buffet.

#5 - Will Ohman (LHP), Former Atlanta Brave

Possibly the best left handed reliever on the market, Ohman is cheap, young and could immediately help a contender looking for a reliever.  His market, however, is surprisingly cool.  Final Prediction:  Signs With Tampa Bay For 1 Year, $2 million

#6 - Ty Wigginton (3B/LF), Former Houston Astro

The Astros surprisingly non-tendered Wigginton after they feared paying him double digit figures after his career year in 2008.  The market for Wigginton has also been surprsingly cool, perhaps due to the lack of openings available, and possibly a reluctance to give him a multiyear deal.  But Wigginton is valuable, as he can play mutliple positions, can hit for good power, and isn’t an embarresment in the lineup.  Still, with all this considered, I think he’ll probably wind up back in Houston.  Final Prediction:  Re-Signs With Houston For 1 Year, $5 million.

#7 - Orlando Cabrera (SS), Former Chicago White Sox (or Sock)

Cabrera was still an excellent defensive shortstop, but he is on the wrong side of 30, is already showing some decline as far as his bat is concerned, and is still looking for big cash.  Cabrera also didn’t endear himself to teammates by calling the scorekeeper to have errors re-assigned to other guys.  He maybe has a two year window of usefullness before he winds up as a backup.  Final Prediction:  Signs With The Oakland Athletics For 1 Year, $6 million

#8 - Ivan Rodriguez (C), Former Texas Ranger New York Yankee

Pudge was horrible when he joined the Yankees, but he still is an adequate defensive catcher and can hit for contact, but his best days are behind him.  However, as a one year option for a team with a young catcher on the way, Pudge isn’t a bad option.  Final Prediction:  Signs With The Florida Marlins For The Minimum.  The Fuckers.

#9 - Braden Looper (RHP), Former St. Louis Cardinal

How Looper was able to turn himself into an innings eating starter is beyond me.  Much of the credit probably has to be laid at the feet of pitching guru Dave Duncan.  How Looper will pitch away from him is beyond me.  However, Looper is a safer alternative to Jon Garland as his stuff has remained consistent, and he’ll only require a short commitment.  Final Prediction:  Signs With The Arizona Diamondbacks For 2 Years, $8 million, plus an option for $9 or $10 million, or something to that extent.

#10 - Randy Wolf (LHP), Another Former Houston Astro

Wolf was effective once he left San Diego, one of the only instances I’ve seen it happen.  Wolf can be an effective Number Four starter, and he looks reasonably healthy.  The problem is his fastball is as straight as an arrow.  My guess is that he returns to the Dodgers, who are looking for an extra pitcher.  Final Guess:  Signs With The Dodgers For One Year, $6 million

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