Well that sucked:

I seemed to have lost the last part of my “Morisato As GM” posts.  Shit.

But, fortunately, I’ve got a backup plan.

Seeing as how this is the last day before free agency, in which we’ll see draft picks swap hands faster than Shooter watching Soft Core on HBO, I figured what better time than to post my tentative first round of the 2009 Draft.  Before the picks officially change.

1^st Overall - The Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State

Thanks to being arguably the shittiest team in baseball, the Nationals get to go first.  And who better in terms of raw talent than the ace of San Diego State.  Strasburg was impressive for the United States Olympic Team in Beijing, but he also has a 23 strikeout game to his record and is generally regarded to be the top overall talent in this draft.  Strasburg has a strong pitchers build, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, touching 100 on occassions.  He keeps his velocity deep into games, and his command is solid.  He also has two toher quality pitches in his changeup and his slider.  His only real fault is that he depends a lot on his fastball and not enough on his off-speed pitches.  But overall, he’s a solid prospect, one that is worthy of the top pick.  Many think that he could rise as quickly as David Price has.  However, there also is going to be some tough negotiations, namely thanks to the Nationals wanting to pay slot money and Strasburg’s representation (take a guess).  Still, this is a no brainer, and in no way can the Nationals fuck this up.

2^nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

Grant Green (SS), USC

The guys at Lookout Landing are hoping for Strasburg, who by some miracle could fall here if the Nationals choose to go with a positional player.  However, assuming that Nats stick to what everyone thinks they’ll do, the Mariners still get a great conscellation prize in Grant Green.  The top college shortstop in America, even better than Gordon Beckham, Green has the upside of Troy Tulowitzki from the sounds of scouts.  Green is an excellent defender with good range and soft hands.  He’s a quality athlete and is an effective baserunner, though he doesn’t have Tulo’s speed.  Green does have some power, hitting 9 home runs last season.  The one knock of Green is that he doesn’t walk often.  Should he improve on those numbers, maybe hit for a bit more power as well, Green could cement his status as a Top 5 pick.  Because of the lack of depth in the college rank, plus the Padres seeking to get a quality superstar talent, which I think Green can be, he’s likely to be popped at the second overall slot.  Another choice could be the Mariners choosing North Carolina Ace Alex White, which isn’t a bad pick either, but Green just has the potential to be the most electrifying player that Seattle has had since Alex Rodriguez left for Texas.

3^rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

Alex White (RHP), North Carolina

The Padres are rumored to be hoping for Grant Green, who they would hope would replace Khalil Green at shortstop soon enough that they won’t need to trouble with looking for a long term replacement.  However, in this scenario, Green is gone.  That means that the Padres have to settle for the second best pitching prospect in this draft in North Carolina’s Alex White.  While White isn’t quite as polished as Strasburg is, but he too has solid stuff.  White throws in the low 90’s and is able to touch 95.  Also in his favor is that his fastball has plenty of sink to it.  He throws a slider that is just as effective, and has an average breaking ball, I think a changeup.  He works quickly and his delivery is solid.  Overall, he’s a nice fit here, and a worthwhile prize.  The Padres still could fuck this up, however, as they have been hesitant in going after high priced talent (see Bush, Matt over Verlander, Justin).  Hopefully, they’ll draft on talent and not signability.

4^th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri
There are several options that the Pirates could go for.  Aaron Crow is a solid option here, though he would be just a slight overdraft.  They could also go for the top high school athletes in Donovan Tate or Mychal Givens.  However, I think that they’ll draft Crow’s former teammate Kyle Gibson.  Due to Aaron Crow’s dominance, a lot of people forgot about Gibson.  Gibson has a low 90’s fastball with some sink.  He also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which are solid pitches as well.  His command is average and his impressive height (6′6″), gives his stuff extra sink and movement.  However, the same problem I had with Crow is the same problem I have with Gibson: the delivery.  While Crow had that funky chicken wing type delivery, Gibson has a delivery similar to another big leaguer: Tim Lincecum.  Like Lincecum, Gibson seems to slingshot the ball, but like Lincecum, he repeats the delivery well.  Of the two, while Crow has the better velocity, Gibson is the more complete pitcher, so I would take him.

5^th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School

A two way high school player, Givens is a slightly better prospect of a pitcher.  He throws a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and a changeup and curveball that do have some potential.  However, he doesn’t have a great feel for his pitches, which hurts his stock.  As a hitter, Givens has most of the five tools.  He’s an athletic middle infielder with solid range and some speed, and solid power potential that could increase as he gets older.  His makeup is said to be good by the good guys over at Saber Scouting, who also point out many of Givens’ flaws.  Givens is a shorter player, under six feet and his swing is long and complicated, which results in strikeouts and problems making contact.  Still, tools guys are popular among scouts and organizations and the Dodgers have proven that you can refine them into top notch prospects, as seen by Chad Billingsley and Matt Kemp.  Overall, there aren’t any players available that would make the Orioles better in the short term, but Givens is a solid talent that shouldn’t be overlooked by Baltimore. 

6^th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina

Another Tar Heel makes the first round mock!!!  Ackley put up impressive numbers for North Carolina, hitting .405/.495/.599 last season, with 7 Home Runs, 47 RBI’s, and 18 for 24 in steals.  Ackley has great plate discipline, walking almost 20% of the time last season.  He also shows some power as well.  However, Ackley’s power isn’t great in terms of home runs.  What has given Ackley a boost in value is that he’s now playing center field, which is where he should be.  All in all, he’d be a great pickup, perhaps near the top of the first round.  He makes the most sense for the Giants, who are desperate for outfield talent, well, any talent that doesn’t pitch really. 

7^th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School

The son of Lars Tate, Donavan is a top recruit in football and a top ten baseball prospect as well.  He is similar to Aaron Hicks, who was a first rounder last year, in that he has loads of tools.  He’s got crazy athleticism and incredible speed.  His arm is strong, hitting 95 on the gun.  As for the plate, Tate has great raw power and hits pitches consistently.  However, Tate needs to improve his defensive reads, though he could be a quality defender in time.  Tate is also undecliplined, raking up loads of strikeouts.  All in all, there is the potential for him to be a power hitting centerfielder.  So, while Tate is a high risk, high reward talent, the talent is more than enough to invest in.  The Braves like taking local talent, and typically they like taking young, projectable talent, so Tate makes all sorts of sense.

8^th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats

The Reds hold a lot of cards here, as they still is a lot of talent that they could go either way with.  They could go for the next best college positional player in Robbie Shields, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll go with a young college arm that would rise quickly.  That really narrows it down to Aaron Crow or Andy Oliver here.  With that in mind, I think the Reds will likely go for Crow here.  Selected with the 9^th overall pick by Washington, Crow, his negotiators, and the Washington Front Office all had a comedy of errors that resulted in Crow returning to the draft.  I’ve made it clear that I think his deleivery makes him a ticking timb bomb, as it’s similar to that of BJ Ryan.  However, he’s a right hander that throws high 90’s head, a good slider, and a decent changeup.  All in all, Crow gives them a guy that at the very least could help them in their bullpen come September if they sign him quickly, or could contend for a rotation spot next spring training. 

9^th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State

An intriguing arm at times, Oliver has three usable pitches in his arsenal.  He’s got a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s and his curveball and changeup both project to be solid pitches.  Oliver’s biggest issue, however, is that he’s so damn inconsistent.  He struggles with his command in spite of the fact that his mechanics are very good.  However, he does generate high ground ball totals and doesn’t walk many while striking out several.  Overall, he’s a tantalizing, but frustrating prospect.  Right now, he’s a top ten talent, and him getting picked by the Tigers is a no-brainer here.  If the Tigers choose to go young, they have their choice of the top high school arms.  However, Oliver is the last of the best college arms, so why not pick up the last of the rare commodities quickly.

10^th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

Matt Graham (RHP), Texas High School

The Nationals have a variety of choices here.  Ownership might want to go for signability in an attempt to off-set the cost of the pick (and because if they don’t sign their pick this time, there is no compensation for next year.)  Though he’s shown a dip in velcoity toward the end of the year, I think that was more because of the fact that he was overworked.  The talent is there for Graham to be a high first rounder.  He throws in the low to mid 90’s and he has a good curveball to go with it.  Like most high school kids, he lacks a changeup, but all in all that’s a solid arsenal to go along with his good command.  The fact he comes from the same academy that Scott Kazmir did also helps matters.  Look for Graham to be the first or second high school arm to be taken.

11^th Overall - The Colorado Rockies

Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School

A projectable lefty with a good pitchers frame, Matzek is the second solid prep lefty in this draft.  At six three, he shows lots of projection, but already has three pitches that project to be above average pitches.  He throws around 90, touching 94 at times, while mixing in a curveball that is a borderline plus pitch.  He also shows a solid slider and an idea of a changeup.  Overall, he’s got the potential to be a Number Two Starter and is thought to be a relatively safe pick in terms of bust potential.  He’s a nice pick up for the Rox.

12^th Overall - The Kansas City Royals

Ben Tootle (RHP), Jacksonville State

Here’s the first pick that I might be accused of some favoritsm, but this is the highest I am willing to put him.  Tottle was impressive in the Cape Cod League this year, where he served as Falmouth’s closer.  He easily has some of the best stuff in the draft.  His fastball clocks in the mid 90’s, touching 98 with regularity.  He also has one of the best slider’s in the draft.  However, Tootle also has his faults.  His breaking ball is vulnerable to left handers and his fastball is straight.  Plus, his mechanics are a bit violent, making some considering him to be a reliever.  But overall, he’s a live arm and one that deserves to get taken in this spot. 

13^th Overall - The Oakland Athletics

Robbie Shields (SS), Florida Southern

Oakland lacks any sort of shortstop talent, as many of their shortstop prospects are likely going to have to move to third or second base.  Fortunately, one of the better shortstop prospects around is Robbie Shields.  He hasn’t been seen in any extented action by scouts due to his hand injuries that limited him in the Cape Cod League.  Overall, he’s regarded to be an average shortstop, with average speed and range.  He’s not a standout defender, but he isn’t bad at shortstop and could remain there with some work on his defensive fundamentals.  Where Shields stands out is with his bat.  He’s got good bat speed and a lot of pop for a middle infielder.  Overall, he’s been compared to Aaron Hill. 

14^th Overall - The Texas Rangers

Matt Purke (LHP), Texas High School

Right now, I’ve got them taking Purke, who has a power pitcher’s frame at 6-4, and throws a big fastball that sits in the low 90’s, clocking as high as 94.  he matches that with a slider that is a plus pitch, which is said to be major league ready now.  He throws a changeup, but like many high school pitchers, he doesn’t use it much.  His delievery draws a lot of disagreements.  Some say it’s effortless, others say that it’s a reliever’s deleivery.  Still, He’s a quality pitching prospect with loads of projection.  Tyler Matzek is also another option here, if the Reds decide to go with Purke instead of Matzek, in which case I’d be a happy camper.  Matt Davidson, the top high school bat, is also an option here, if the Rangers are intriuged enough.

15^th Overall - The Cleveland Indians

Kentrail Davis (OF), Tennessee

A draft eligible sophomore, Davis earns a lot of comparisons to Kirby Puckett (more skin color related than anything).  Davis is short at 5-9, but he’s got tremendous strength, that coupled with a good swing should allow for him to hit for good power.  He’s also a solid runner.  The only deal is that he’s likely to remain in left and many scouts are a bit lukewarm about him because most of his value is wrapped up in his bat.  All in all, he’s a solid pick, and one that I think the Indians should take a shot on, as he fits well with their long term future.  The Indians could have Sizemore in center, with Davis and Francisco in the corners, with moving Shoppach for a missing piece and having Matt LaPorta play first, with Beau Mills as the DH.  That’s five slots easy that can make up the first five spots in the lineup. 

16^th Overall - The Arizona Diamondbacks

Matt Davidson (3B), California High School

One of the top prep bats in the draft, Davidson is a big kid that likely won’t remain at the hot corner.  His best tool is his bat, his power potential in particular, which is among the highest among the prep bats in this drat class.  In addition, he also makes decent contact and has shown the beginnings of some plate discipline.  Overall, while he may be destined for an outfield corner, or even first base, the bat should be more than enough to carry him.  Davidson is also the last of the picks that is draft protected, meaning that there is a solid chance that the next 15 picks will swap hands.  Let’s move on.

==Draft Pick Compensation Begins Here==

17^th Overall - The Los Angeles Dodgers

Tanner Scheppers (RHP), St. Paul Saints

Here is the first pick that I think is likely going to be someone elses, as I don’t think the Dodgers will keep this, but will instead make a big play for CC Sabathia.  If they do keep it, the best guy left available is Tanner Scheppers, who was rated as a potential top ten pick before he needed to have shoulder surgery.  The result was that he fell to the second round and the Pirates ultimately weren’t comfortable in ponying up a huge deal for him.  Scheppers flashed mid 90’s velocity as well as a good curve and changeup, but overall aside form recovering from the procedure, he’ll have to find a way to repeat his delivery to help his command and control.  I think he’ll be back to where he was before, making him a lock for the middle of the draft at the least.  He could go higher if he dominates the American Association.

18^th Overall - The Florida Marlins

Jacob Turner (RHP), Missouri High School

Another intriguing young arm, Turner is a power right-hander that ranks up there with the top arms of the draft.  Turner has a power pitcher’s frame and attacks hitters with a fastball that clocks in the low 90’s with some sink.  He has two above average pitches in his curveball and a changeup.  He’s got solid command and a nice, easy delivery.  Many have compared him to Tim Melville, which isn’t quite fair, as Melville was a borderline top 10 talent.  Still, he’s a solid prospect with low bust potential that should make a team happy.  He should appeal a lot to the Marlins.

19^th Overall - The St. Louis Cardinals

Ryan Wheeler (1B/3B), Loyola Marymount

It’s harder to peg what St. Louis does, as they’ve gone to a very stat centric way of scouting in recent years.  Right now, I have them taking Ryan Wheeler, who is regarded to be one of the more solid all around players in this draft.  He’s not very athletic and isn’t a great third baseman, but is regarded to be a very good defensive first baseman.  He’s got a solid approach to hitting, with some power and ability to get on base.  Overall, I think he can become a very solid player, but not spectacular.  It’s possible that his upside could be Casey Kotchman, which is good, but not great for a first baseman unless you balance the lineup in other ways. 

20^th Overall - The Toronto Blue Jays

Alex Wilson (RHP), Texas A&M

Wilson has potential top of the first round talent, but his stock has tumbled because of his health, as he missed all of 2007 thanks to Tommy John Surgery.  As far as fastball velocity goes, Wilson ranks up there with Crow, throwing in the mid 90’s, touching 96 several times.  His slider is downright nasty and his changeup is at least an average pitch.  The problem is that Wilson isn’t completely back yet and his delivery is somewhat violent.  All in all, he’s got the tools to be a top talent and should be a supplemental rounder at the very least.  He’s actually a bit of a steal here in the 20’s, considering the arm and the stuff.

21^st Overall - The Houston Astros

Zach Wheeler (RHP), Georgia High School

Like the Dodgers, there is a good chance that the Astros won’t keep this pick either, as they may seek to go after one of the big name pitchers hitting the market in an attempt to contend.  Another tall pitcher, Wheeler has been clocked in the low 90’s and showed good command over a curveball and what I think might be a slider.  He’s got loads of projection, with many people thinking he could gain more velocity in time.  Overall, he’s yet another example of some of the power arms available in this draft, and one that the Astros shouldn’t pass on.

==Potential Pick Here To Seattle If They Don’t Sign Josh Fields==

22^nd Overall - The Minnesota Twins

Beau Wright (LHP), California High School

Yet another example of the depth in prep pitching in this draft, Wright is a southpaw that is a respectable pitcher as a prospect.  He works in the low 90’s in terms of velocity, and compliments it with a big breaking curveball.  He’ll need a third pitch to develop into a starter, but he does have fairly advanced command and a feel for pitching.  All in all, he’s not quite in the class of Purke or Matzek, but he’s a good prospect that should blossom in this system.

23^rd Overall - The Chicago White Sox

Austin Maddox (C), Florida High School

Regarded to be one of the best high school catchers in the draft, Maddox is a solid prospect offensively and defensively.  At the plate, he’s got a compact swing with good bat speed that generates a lot of power.  His palte discipline is said to be average, and he has shown he can hit with wood bats.  At catcher, he’s got solid game calling and receiving skills and has a strong arm (clocks 95 on the gun).  However, there are two issues to deal with.  The first is that Maddox is already six-four and if he continues to grow, there are questions as to whether or not he’ll outgrow catching.  The second is that he’s got a strong Florida commitment, which could up the price.   Still, even if he outgrows being a backstop, the bat will play anywhere.

24^th Overall - The New York Mets

Brett Jackson (CF), California

This is another pick I expect to change hands, as I think the Mets will do something huge.  They will regain a first rounder, thanks to Oliver Perez’s Type A status, so they won’t completely disappear from the first round.  Right now, the best solution in terms of a high impact bat that has huge upside is Cal’s Jackson.  Jackson is a solid athlete that could potentially be considered to be a first round pick.  He’s got some of the best power potential in the draft and is a solid outfielder with enough range and arm to stay in center.  His biggest flaw is that he’s so raw offensively, in spite of him having good tools.  Overall, he’s a player that gets the J.D. Drew comp in terms of physical tools.  He could potentially take advantage of a weak positional player class to become a mid first round pick.  Overall, he’s a decent gamble here towards the end of the first round, provided that the Mets keep their pick.  We’ll see.

25^th Overall - The New York Yankees

Ryan Jackson (SS), Miami

Here is another pick that I think will change hands, as I can guarantee that New York will not keep this pick.  Jackson was one of the unsung heros of that Miami offense that was powered by Yonder Alonso.  In terms of his potential, he’s regarded to be one of the best defensive shortstops in college baseball thanks to his athleticism, speed and hands.  As for his glove, he doesn’t have home run power, but could have some potential as a doubles hitter.  His plate discipline is solid and he makes good contact with the baseball.  All in all, he’s not in the category of Green, but he is an available option that should receive some notice, especially with the Yankees now beginning to realize that Derek Jeter will eventually retire.

26^th Overall - The Milwaukee Brewers

Max Stassi (C), California

Another highly regarded catcher in this class, Stassi is a different animal than Austin Maddox.  However, Stassi os more likely to remain behind the plate.  He’s a capable defender with a cannon of an arm.  As for his bat, he’s not the same hitter as Maddox, who has better power, but Stassi has some gap power and should hit for average.  Overall, he’s got the potential to sneak into the first round, and should be gone by Round 2.  The Brewers, who have a wealth of picks, will probably pick him somewhere near the end of the first round.

27^th Overall - The Philadelphia Phillies

Jake Marisnick (CF), California High School

A toolsy outfielder, Marisnick is a heck of an athlete.  He’s quick, has good power potential, and has a strong arm in center.  As far as defense, he’s got solid defensive ability.  However, he’s also very raw and would require a lot of development time to harness his tools into performance.  This is the classic Phillies pick, big time athlete, loads of raw talent. 

28^th Overall - The Boston Red Sox

Daniel Webb (RHP), Okaloosa-Walton College

A projected first round talent that had some signability issues, Webb fell to the 12^th round, where Arizona took a flier on him.  However, Webb didn’t sign and instead of honoring his commitment to Kentucky, Webb instead went to Okaloosa-Walton College in Florida in order to re-enter the draft.  Webb threw a fastball in the mid 90’s, and is regarded to be an aggressive pitcher.  However, he was essentially a one pitch pitcher, as his curve and slider were both behind on his development and his command and control are off.  Overall, he’s exactly the type of pitcher that Boston usually hits on, and his high upside potential makes him a bit of a slam dunk here.

29^th Overall - The Tampa Bay Rays

Chris Jenkins (RHP), New Jersey High School

The Rays actually could lose this pick if they decide to upgrade at DH and go after Raul Ibanez, like many are expecting them to do this off-season.  If they keep it, Jenkins is one of the last high quality prep arms on the table.  Jenkins is big at 6-6 and he throws 93, with rumors of him hitting 96 going on.  His secondary pitches aren’t there yet, making him essentially what Daniel Webb was last year.  All in all, he’s a good pickup.

30^th Overall - The New York Yankees (Compensation For Gerrit Cole)

Bobby Borchering (3B), Florida High School

New York can’t give up this pick, so they’ll be guaranteed of at least one first round pick (with maybe another depending on if Bobby Abreu gets signed by a club in the bottom half), so they have some options to work with.  A solid option would be to consider a solid prep hitter that can be developed slowly.  One of these, a hitter that’s come on in recent showcases, Borchering is a solid switch hitter that shows power from both sides of the plate.  His swing is very good, though he’s better from his left side.  However, he’s not very athletic and not a good third baseman, means that he’ll likely have to move to the outfield, or perhaps first base if he’s not able to handle it.  My own suggestion is that due to his arm strength, why not move him to catcher?  There are several third baseman that have been converted (with Russell Martin and Jorge Posada being the most well known.)

31^st Overall - The Chicago Cubs

Chris Dominguez (3B/RHP), Louisville

It’s iffy on whether or not the Cubs will keep this pick.  If they do, I would recommend Chris Dominguez, who is a two-way talent from Louisville who tantalizes people with his talent.  Though he’s a third baseman, many feel that he’ll eventually wind up at first base or in left field.  However, he is a big kid that has one of the est power potentials in the draft class.  He can hit fastballs, but has trouble against breaking pitches.  He does have a strong arm, which is why some teams have considered him as a pitcher, but Dominguez has stated that he won’t sign as a pitcher.  Overall, he’s a end of the first round, sandwich talent that could be a worthwhile gamble for a team willing to have a player who could potentially be similar to Ryan Howard. 

32^nd Overall - The Los Angeles Angels, North of Anaheim, West of Las Vegas…

Rich Poythress (1B), Georgia

Though many actually liked Ryan Wheeler more than Poythress, I actually like the Georgia First Baseman a lot more.  He’s not a great athlete, but he is big.  He’s got good plate discipline and will get on base.  He’s also got solid power, enough to be somewhere along a 20-25 homer guy in Majors.  Many have given him the Brett Wallace comp, but I think he sounds more like David Cooper, actually, if we’re comparing first baseman from the last draft.  Overall, he’s a solid player to take here, and is one of the last sure things in the college ranks.  I also doubt that the  Angels will keep this pick, but they could still draft Poythress later, as they have at least two potential First Round picks coming their way if Francisco Rodriguez and Mark Teixiera book. 

Sources And Contributors:  Keith Law (ESPN), Jim Callis And The Rest Of The Baseball America Crew, Saberscouting.com, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus), DraftInfo.com, Sam Mendez, Jerry Estrada