Morisato’s Blog 2.0
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Archive for New York Mets
October 6, 2008 at 9:36 pm · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, Frank Francisco, Gerald Laird, J.J. Hardy, Joaquin Arias, Matt Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers, Movies, NL Central, NL East, NL West, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Prince Fielder, Rick Porcello, Texas Rangers
Post-Mortum - Milwaukee
At some point in the next few days, Doug Melvin will march into the owner’s office at Miller Park, much as he did in 2000 when he marched into Tom Hick’s Office, and will say the following sentance:
This team’s time is over. It’s time for us to rebuild.
This was it. This was legitimately the last shot Milwaukee had in terms of fielding a contending team in the near future.
The Brewers are losing their top two starters to free agency, and many of the current team has reached their potential with the Brewers. The 2008 Brewers are as good as they ever were going to be. And they likely won’t get any better next year than they were this year, and are likely going to be much worse.
With Sheets and Sabathia gone, the Brewers are left with a staff of Yovanni Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Seth McClung. That isn’t a rotation that inspires confidence, and is a massive downgrade to what the Brewers had this year.
Prince Fielder is approaching arbitration and is unlikely to sign a contract extension with the team. J.J. Hardy is two years away from Free Agency and still hasn’t signed an extension. And how much longer are the Brewers willing to dream upon Rickie Weeks’ tools package, which hasn’t yet provided anything near results.
Granted, there are some bright spots on the horizon. Alcides Escobar plays a mean shortstop and could improve the infield defense should the Brewers choose to slide Hardy over or trade him for a suitable replacement. And Matt Gamel, a slugging third baseman that might actually be a worse defender than Ryan Braun was, could be a capable replacement for Fielder.
If the Brewers chose to trade Hardy to the Texas Rangers for Gerald Laird, who has the same amount of service time as Hardy and fills a need for the squad, it would fill a need. So would trading Fielder to San Francisco for Matt Cain, as the Giants begin their quixotic attempt to return to the post-season (don’t try it, please!)
The Brewers’ time is over.
It’s time to reload, take a year off, and make a run in 2010, with a new core, solid talent, and potentially with a stronger core to work with.
Post-Mortum - Chicago
Well, Ryan Dempster has been proven a liar, hasn’t he?
It’s a pity, as the Cubs did seem to have the magic going. They had a strong rotation, solid bullpen, and pieces all around that were contributing.
So what the fuck happened?
Quite simply, they were outplayed by a hotter team and chose a shitty time to go into the shitter.
So what happens now?
The Cubs have most of their team coming back for next year, and it’s likely that Dempster and Wood will return to the Cubs next season. However, expecting Dempster to be effective and Rich Harden to be healthy and productive aren’t sure things, meaning that there will be some uncertainty for next year.
They also have some holes to fill at right field, depending on what they choose to do with Fukudome, and Centerfield. While they could get away with Reed Johnson in center for next year, the Cubs and Lou Pinella are not enthused about hoping Fukudome will improve next year. They could try to acquire Bobby Abreu on the free agent market (who is very much Lou’s type of player), but that still leaves the burning question as to where in the hell they’ll play Fukudome, who doesn’t seem to be inclined to accept a bench role. Fukudome has some value, and if the Cubs are really willing to just say fuck it and go for it, they could try and make a play for Randy Winn from San Francisco.
EIther way, the Cubs shouldn’t do anything rash. Their only real competition for the division should come from St. Louis. Overracting and trying to change too much can only lead to disaster.
Detroit To Inquire About Catching, Shortstop, With Texas
The Tigers are looking to upgrade at shortstop and catcher and are going to call Texas once the season is over.
Not satisifed with the craptacular producting they were getting from Edgar Renteria and Brandon Inge, the Tigers are hoping to acquire shortstop Joaquin Arias and catcher Gerald Laird to fill their holes.
There’s only one teeny, tiny problem.
The Tigers don’t have much to trade.
Texas is looking for starting pitching, and to be quite frank, the Tigers are too.
It’s possible that the two sides could decide on a package centered on Jeremy Bonderman, who Texas has liked in the past. However, there are problems a deal like that. For starters, Texas may overvalue Laird, who isn’t a full time starter and couldn’t be given away last off-season. Second, the Tigers may be trying to get out from under Bonderman’s contract for fear that the amount of innings they put on Bonderman’s arm too early may be catching up to them.
Verlander could also be in play, but that would require a larger package, likely Frank Francisco and another minor player.
The most intriuguing player that could be centered in terms of a package could be Rick Porcello, the Pirates’ top pitching prospect. The Rangers pondered Porcello at the draft, but passed on him in favor of Blake Beavan not because of the bonus demands, but because of Porcello and Boras’ demands for a major league contract, which he did manage to get from Detroit. Porcello has three more years left to remain in the minors, and in his defense, he’s actually proven to be adequate, holding his own in High A.
The Rangers could offer to trade Laird, Arias, Brandon Boggs to serve their fourth outfielder needs, and Omar Poveda and change for Porcello and a minor prospect alone. Porcello’s already been paid his bonus and would give the Rangers another arm to be excited about (though in hindsight, Porcello would only be the fifth best prospect in the organization, as he’ll be behind Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Justin Smoak, Elvis Andrus and potentially could be sixth depending on how you view Taylor Teagarden.)
I’ll address this in my Five Off-Season Moves Column, Coming This Week, starting with the AL West (as I…um…haven’t finished the NL Central yet.)
Things I Don’t Get
- Why do the Baseball Writers Asociation Of America shit on Fantasy Baseball, but use Fantasy Baseball Stats to decide the MVP and Cy Young Awards?
- Why in God’s name is there is Dragonball movie coming out five years after the original DBZ craze came out?
- Speaking of movies, why in God’s name is there talk about a sequel to Bull Durham? Supposedly, it would deal with Crash Davis managing a major league team owned by Nuke LaLoosh and Annie Savoy, who are married. Ummm, didn’t Davis and Savoy get together at the end of the movie, while Nuke went on to fame and fortune in the big leagues? Is there really a need to screw with what is considered a classic (though it is an overrated one at that?)
- Why did Yankee Stadium Get A Fuckload Of Hoopla, But Shea Stadium Got Nary A Whisper?
- How in God’s name did Omar Minya wrangle himself a contract extension after two staight chokes in a row, no significant player development, and a series of gambles on old guys that have turned up snake eyes? Does he have naked pictures of Fred Wilpon or something?
Morisato’s Movie Review - Choke
Choke is a sort of a combination between the 40 Year Old Virgin and Fight Club. The Story centers around a man named Victor, who goes to Sex Addiction classes with his best friend (Vic has a compulsion to have sex with random people, his buddy a chronic masturbator). Both work at a historical re-enactment place, where they have issues with the governor. In any case, Victor visits his mother Angelica Huston, a former Peace Activist with a severe form of dementia, who doesn’t recognize her son, but instead thinks he’s a numerous lineup of lawyers. He supports her by pretending to choke at different restaurants, and then guilting his eventual saviors to send him money for his medical bills (hence the title of the film). It turns out that her condition is getting worse and the only way she can be saved is by some stem cell research. A pretty doctor who cares for his mother (played by the Luellen’s Wife in No Country For Old Men), volunteers to carry the child. In spite of his previous attempts to have sex with her, Vic can’t bring himself to do the deed, out of some feelings for her. Vic also discovers his mother has a secret about his real father, one that takes a turn for the absurd. All in all, the cast acts this film rather brilliantly. it’s a pretty neat look into man’s need to deal with numerous compulsions, as well as childhood experiences that we never seem to shake off. All in all, I enjoyed it more than I did Burn After Reading, and it should get the occasional mention come awards time. Check it out if you get the chance.
August 25, 2008 at 9:52 pm · Filed under Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Detroit Tigers, Greg Maddux, Horacio Ramirez, John Smoltz, Kevin Millwood, MLB, NL East, New York Mets, Tom Glavine
Where is the horse and the rider? Where is the horn that was blowing? They have passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow. The days have gone down in the West behind the hills into shadow. How did it come to this?
- Theoden, The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers
We can officially bury one of the dynasties of the past twenty years in baseball.
The Atlanta Braves are now toast.
To again quote Theoden, how did it ever come to this?
The Atlanta Braves of the 90’s were built on the mantra of pitching, pitching, and pitching. When you have Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux pitching in front of you, that is a hard series for you to win. However, the Braves had other starters that pitched effectively to help out the Bravos as well, with pitchers such as Steve Avery, Denny Neagle (before prostitution), and Kevin Millwood being the most well known of the other 90’s Braves.
What this did cover up, however, was the fact that Millwood was essentially the last pitcher actually developed by the Braves.
Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz all provided the Braves with a security blanket. All were in their prime during their time with the Braves and all three were able to average 200 innings or close to that during the duration of their time with the Braves. And because the club was flush in cash thanks to Ted Turner, it was easier to keep that blanket together. However, after Millwood’s arrival, the Braves pipeline of young pitchers began to run dry. None of the other pitchers that seemed to come up could seem to even compare to Millwood. Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Bruce Chen and other pitchers all saw their time in the starting rotation of the Bravos, and time and time again, neither was really anything dominant, and in time, none was really even servicable as a fifth starter.
The issue didn’t become anywhere near as pronouced until the Big Three began to fracture apart. Smoltz would disappear after needing Tommy John Surgery around 2002, if I believe. That loss put the need for the Braves to now find another option for the fourth and fifth starters. Lesser pitchers, such as Horacio Ramirez, Paul Byrd, and others began to sprinkle into the rotation. Glavine’s depature in 2003 to New York would cost the Braves another of their dependable 200 inning options. Smotlz would return, but would have to become a reliever because he was unable to stand up to the pounding of 200 innings. THe Braves would also exile Millwood in 2002, when he unexpectedly accepted salary arbitration, resulting in the arrival of Johnny Estrada. Maddux accepted arbitration that same year, causing him to return and then depart Atlanta in 2004.
The loss of the Big Three was a devistating blow to Alanta, who now lost their long term starters for nearly a generation. The loss of Millwood as well resulted in the need to find other capable pitchers that would be able to help stave off the decay of the pitching staff. The result was the arrival of more mercinary pitchers, with Russ Ortiz taking over the role of staff ace and being followed by Paul Byrd, Jaret Wright, John Thomson, and other quick patches. The Braves continued to seek out workable options, bringing in Tim Hudson and looking around for any pitching that would fall into their laps.
The Braves seemed more and more to rely on Leo Mazzone continuing to keep the pitching staff afloat instead of actual talented, long term options for the rotation to become stable. And while Mazzone did his job extremely well for Atlanta, none of the Braves’ attempts to stave off the growing problem of a lack of pitching seemed to provide a long term fix. In a way, the team may have felt that as long as Mazzone remained a Brave, the option could simply be worked upon until something better came up.
Which makes the eventual depature of Mazzone to Baltimore all the more disasterous, in my opinion. Debate what you will about the usefulness of pitching coaches, but Mazzone was one of the best and was really one of the only things keeping the Braves’ staff from collapsing. With the depature of their long term coach, the Braves really were gambling on borrowed time, as the last cog that made the machine run as well as it had was gone.
In the end, the Braves simply weren’t able to continuing to put patches to keep the dam together, and the staff collapsed in 2007 and hasn’t rebounded since. The Braves have tried to conjure up the glory years in recent times by bringing back Glavine and having Smoltz pitch back in the rotation, but neither one really was anything close to their former selves once they returned to the Braves rotation. Add in the fact that Maddux is near the end and MIllwood is quietly flaming out in Texas and it marks an even sadder end to a era in the Braves.
Ultimately, what the Braves really need to do is rebuild their staff from the minor leagues on down. Their overall pitching depth isn’t impressive and the best arm the system has produced in years, Adam Wainwright, is currently a St. Louis Cardinals. Perhaps this can be fixed in the upcoming drafts for Atlanta, which is how they initially acquired Glavine. Perhaps shedding unnecessary salary in replacable players such as Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francouer and others could allow them to bring in a top young talent, as they did with Glavine.
Perhaps the rebuilding is already beginning. In 1987, the Braves traded Doyle Alexander to the Tigers for a young prospect from the area, one whom they had high hopes for, but ultimately deemed disposable.
That was John Smotlz.
In 2007, the Tigers, hoping to make a run at the World Series, traded two prospects that they deemed replacable to the Braves for Edgar Renteria.
So far, Jair Jurrgens is doing a pretty fair imitation of a Braves legend. We’ll see how well he can keep it up.
July 25, 2008 at 4:45 pm · Filed under AL East, Baseball, Brandon Morrow, Casey Blake, Dunn, Jarrod Washburn, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Xavier Nady
The Jarrod Washburn Story Nearing It’s Inevitable Conclusion
Sindey Ponson may not pitch tomorrow, as it looks like the Yankees will merely assume Washburn’s contract obligations and give Seattle virtually nothing in terms of a prospect of consequence. Overall, this is probably the best Seattle could have hoped for (though I still think that Washburn is worth four outfielder Brett Gardner, whom the Yankees seem to have an unhealthy fetish for.) Washburn does want a little something-something for waiving his no-trade clause, which is coming from Seattle. I wonder what it is?
The Cleveland Indians Trade FC Casey Blake To The Los Angeles Dodgers For RHP Jonathan Meloan and C Carlos Santana, Acquire Anthony Reyes In A Seperate Deal.
Not a bad haul for the Indians, who get a potential closer in Meloan. Santana is the other big name prospect that the Indians get. Santana was just moved to catcher not too long ago, but looks good behind the plate thus far and has a nice swing. He’s got some power potential in him and overall looks to be quite a solid player.
As for Blake, the Dodgers get a Four Corner Reserve, as Blake can fill in at first, third, left and right field. He’s got decent pop, but is probably not all that great of a bet to be a starter, in my opinion. He’s not that great of a third baseman and the other teams after him, the Rays and the Mets, were going to use him into the outfield. Honestly, the Dodgers probably could have gotten Hank Blalock for Andy LaRoche alone. This deal likely spells the end of LaRoche in LA, which is a puzzling affair as the front office never seemed to believe in him.
The day gets better for the Indians as they get Anthony Reyes, who likely needed to get the hell out of St. Louis. Reyes has looked good in Triple A, likely because he’s away from Dave Duncan, whom he conflicted with a lot. If Reyes’ recovery is for real, the Indians have a solid rotation option bought for virtually nothing. The Cardinals get Luis Perdoma, a minor league reliever, who is okay, but not a closer or even a setup man. Again, good deal for the Indians, who are now likely to give up on Jeremy Sowers, who’s been awful for nearly three years running.
The New York Yankees Trade For Xavier Nady And Damasto Marte
One of the group of Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson and Philip Hughes had to have been involved. There’s no way that the Pirates would have agreed to anything without one of them. My guess is that an Ian Kennedy Plus Melky Cabrera swap has been agreed to, which would result in Nady playing left field, Johnny Damon playing center, and Bobby Abreu at right.
Update: Okay, never mind, I assumed too much that the Yankees would be willing to break up one of their triad of pitchers. Instead, the deal is Marte and Nady to New York for Outfielder Jose Tabata and Right Handed Pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, Phil Coke and George Kontos.
My first reaction was “That’s Fucking IT?! WHAT THE FUCK?!:
After some thought and two Bud Lights, I’ve come to the conclusion that, while it’s disappointing, it’s an average haul.
Marte’s value has been depressed thanks to the Washington Nationals, who traded John Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio, a decent prospect, but not an elite one. That, of course, hindered the value that could be gained on Marte. We can probably assume that Marte brought the two young pitchers, Kontos and Coke. Well, young should be used in quotations for Coke, as he’s 26 and still in Double A. His long term ceiling isn’t great and he likely won’t ever make the majors. Hell, he’ll probably be playing for the St. Paul Saints next season. As for Kontos, he’s a middling prospect, possibliy a fifth starter or middle reliever. In other words, it’s a bag of nothing for a dominant middle reliever. The Pirates probably should have kept him.
As for Nady, we could probably assume that Tabata and Ohlendorf are the return for him. Ohlendorf is what he is, a 7th inning reliever that can eat some innings as a two or three inning long reliever. Tabata is the big prize, so lets go in depth on him.
Tabata ranked Number 4 on the Yankees’ Top Prospect List on Baseball Prospectus. There is a lot to like on him. He’s fast, plays a solid right field, and has a good eye for hitting, excellent bat speed, and could become an above average right fielder and leadoff man. He’s not a bad thing to have.
The problem with Tabata is that he has a history of hand injuries, which have kept him off the field. He’s also recently begun to struggle in the higher minors and debated about leaving baseball after a particularly tough day. In other words, there’s questions as to just how stable a prospect he is.
Tabata is a highly regarded prospect, and indeed is worthy of being called one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. But of the four top Yankee prospects (Hughes, Kennedy, Tabata and Jackson), he was the one they were going to miss the least and may have felt that they sold high on him.
So, in the end, while the Pirates did succeed in getting a top prospect for Nady, he is an unstable one at that. I think the Pirates may have been better off on calling up the Dodgers and trying to structure a package around Andy LaRoche, who the Dodgers are intent on trading. Overall, they did okay on the trade, but could have done more, especially on Marte, who could have gotten a better piece had he been sold seperately.
Update - Saturday Morning: According to the New York Post, the Nady Deal has been changed with the Pirates getting Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens instead. Tabata and Ohlendorf are still in the deal.
This is a much better deal for the Pirates. McCutchen is a better prsopect than Kontos or Coke, and should be at the most a dependable Number Four starter or so. Think of a Kyle Lohse type of player, though then again, Lohse has better stuff than McCutchen does, he just doesn’t play up to it. Karstens is a middle reliever, same as Coke. All in all, this is probably the best the Pirates could do and for the most part, I like it.
Takes On The ESPN Live Blog
ESPN’s got the rumor mill blog going, so here are my takes on a few tidbits that are there.
Even with the trading deadline less than a week away, the Reds have had very little action on Adam Dunn. But one club that spoke with the Reds says the Yankees have explored what it would take to plug Dunn into their revolving outfield/DH vacancies. The Reds, however, are continuing to ask teams for one top-of-the-line prospect and one second-tier prospect. And that’s probably more than the Yankees are inclined to give up for Dunn.
Hmmm, interesting offer, but I would wonder what exactly the definition of “elite prospect” the Reds are using. I’d be tempted to make a play for Dunn if I were Texas, if it were to revolve around a package of, say, Jose Vallejo and Omar Poveda (who is maintaining a decent K to BB ratio, but is struggling because of the California League’s hitter’s paradise), plus a third prospect, I’d be tempted to inquire on Dunn. Then again, if Dunn’s price is, say, Eric Hurley or Chris Davis, I’d tell Walt Jocketty to fuck off too. I’m inclinded to believe the Yankees were asked for Phil Hughes, to which they probably scrambled away from as fast as possible.
Another Yankees update: Despite all sorts of reports about the likes of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner being included in a deal for Jarrod Washburn, indications are that the Yankees view acquiring Washburn strictly as a good-will mission to take Washburn’s money (over $14 million) off the Mariners’ books. So the Yankees aren’t even willing to offer low-level prospects unless Seattle A) agrees to eat some of the money and/or B) is willing to take Kei Igawa. So far, there’s no sign that the Mariners are interested in either option. The Yankees also have deflected all Scott Boras efforts to extract an extension or relocation bonus if Washburn waves his no-trade clause to the Bronx.
Well, to be honest, Kei Igawa isn’t a bad contract. His contract is pretty much what you would get out of a fifth starter, and would be an easier contract to shed than Washburn’s. Hell, the Padres might even be willing to give up something of some value for Igawa, which they were interested in doing last season.
As for the Yankees, this is typical of them, trying to get something for nothing. Though Washburn isn’t an elite player, he’s got some value as an innings eater, which should at least count for the Yankees maybe sending off Brett Gardner, a fourth outfielder, in the deal. The fuckers.
One final bit of comedy: i just love that the Yankees are telling Boras that he gets dick for waiving the no trade clause. It’s not often someone tells Boras that.
With J.J. Putz back throwing well, the Mariners are contemplating sending down Brandon Morrow and turning him into a starter.
Good to see the Mariners brain trust finally using some. Morrow had no business in the majors and should be in Double A right now, preparing to be a starter. Not serving as a setup man on an irrelevant team thanks to a stupid decision by an incompetant general manager to sacrfice everything in a misguided attempt to contend. Congradulations Seattle!
July 1, 2008 at 1:13 pm · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Eric Bedard, Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Matt Murton, NL Central, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
There is some thought put into this in terms of players traded, so here me out before I get flamed.
The Brewers Get: LHP C.C. Sabathia
The Indians Get: 1B Prince Fielder, SS Alcedes Escobar
Okay, put down the knives! Let me explain.
The Brewers are nearing arbitration with Fielder, who has shown no interest in a contract extension with Milwaukee. Complicating matters is Scott Boras, who is likely hard at work on finding vague quotes, Hall of Fame comparisons, and any other things to fill a thick, leather bound tome to be passed around at the 2011 Winter Meetings.
Complicating matters is the fact that Brewers already have a stable of potential replacements in the organization. Ryan Braun isn’t great out in left field, and could be moved to first if need be. Even if you’re not thrilled about that option, you have two first baseman types in the minors. The first, Matt Gamel, shows great pop, but is a terrible third baseman that will need to move to first eventually. The other, left fielder Matt LaPorta, is ready to play in the majors now, and could be promoted to fill in Fielder’s current role.
As for the Indians, they would gain a solid run producer for the next three years, allowing them to replace Ryan Garko at first with Fielder. The inclusion of Escobar, an all glove, some bat shortstop, would allow the Indians to move Jhonny Peralta to third base, preparing them for the depature of Casey Blake.
If the Indians really want to be sticklers, a Player To Be Named could be added in there, but not much else. In fact, this may be the best they could do. Of the teams six games or so from their division lead, we can eliminate the three NL Central Teams (White Sox, Tigers and Twins) because of the unlikelyhood of the Indians dealing within the division, plus because of the states of the White Sox and Tigers’ farm systems. On that note, we can also eliminate the New York Teams and Giants, though if the Giants offered up Matt Cain, I’m sure the Indians would listen.
That leaves Boston, Oakland, Both LA Teams, Texas, Milwaukee, The Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, Cardinals and Diamondbacks. 11 teams. From that bunch, the Angels, Marlins and Athletics can be eliminated (all three are looking for offense.) Arizona seems more likely to add an impact bat instead of a pitcher as well, plus they themselves have enough depth in the major league rotation with Webb/Haren/Johnson/Owings/Davis. The team on that list with arguably the best farm system, the Rangers, are also likely out. If the Rangers make a move, it would be for more prospects or for an established pitcher that is under club control for several years (there’s an arguement for a Matt Cain trade here.)
That leaves six teams:
- Boston - The top contender remaining with a good farm system now that Texas is eliminated under this scenario. You could begin around Michael Bowden, Boston’s top pitching prospect now named Clay Buchholz, and work from there. I’d push for Jason Place, a slugging centerfielder who will likely have to move to right field as he develops. You could try to ask for Jed Lowrie, though I don’t think that the Red Sox would be willing to do it. Asking for Brandon Moss might work, though he’s a bit stretched as an everyday player. All in all, Boston has the best package of talent available, should they choose to deal. They may just choose to stand pat and allow Bartolo Colon and Buchholz to help them down the stretch, which would be a big blow to any Indians chance for a deal.
- Dodgers - Hard to see a fit here, considering that Clayton Kershaw is likely to be blocked from being a part of a deal. The Dodgers could try to put together a package around Matt Kemp, who could play right for the Indians right now. They have enough lower level prospects to offer to make a potential three for one deal, which would be a solid one, especially if one of the prospects was their catching jewel, Carlos Santana.
- Brewers - Already stated.
- Phillies - Philly has relatively few prospects to deal. They could offer Carlos Carrasco, their top pitcher, and Adrian Cardenas, their top positional prospect (slugging second baseman). Aside from that, there’s not a whole lot to work for, and besides, the Phillies are more likely to go after a pitcher that is more controllable for more years, such as Eric Bedard, who could perhaps come cheaper.
- Cubs - The Cubs have little to work with in terms of impact prospects, as they’ve done a rather poor job of stocking their organization in the past few years. Donald Veal has the Dontrelle Willis starting kit, he just lacks command. From there, Jose Ceda could be ready to close next year. After that, what the hell else can you do? You could try and toss in Tyler Colvin and Matt Murton, both outfielders, and maybe a PTBNL, but beyond that, you might be better waiting for other stuff to open up.
- Cardinals - St. Louis wouldn’t mind another top starting pitcher to go with Adam Wainwright, and they do have some prospect depth to deal from. They could offer their top prospect, Colby Rasmus, a centerfielder with star potential, as well as Chris Duncan, and their top catching prospect Brian Anderson. Beyond that, there’s not much more you could offer of interest. The Redbird’s system is deeper, but lacks a lot of upside.
So there you have it. Fielder and change might be enough to convince the Indians to go for it. In fact, Fielder alone would be better than any draft pick that the Indians could make (their history isn’t very promising, I’ll discuss that at a later date.) If you wanted quantity over quality, you could go with the Cubs offer. However, more likely, the Indians will go with the best offer, which may be more or less than what I’ve put out.