July 22, 2008 at 4:33 pm · Filed under AL Central, AL West, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Bullpen, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Joe Blanton, MLB, Matt Murton, NL Central, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Rich Harden, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays
Here are my takes on the most recent trades in baseball.
The San Diego Padres Trade LHP Randy Wolf To The Houston Astros For RHP Chad Reineke. I don’t get this trade at all, as Wolf has been horrific away from PETCO. He’ll eat innings and perhaps provide Shawn Chacon-esque production, but that’s about it. As for Reineke, he is a decent little prospect who has been starting for the Express, but is more likely to head to the bullpen. Many feel that Reineke could be the second coming of Chad Qualls, in which case the Astros just got fucked. Kudos for San Diego for getting something of value, even if it isn’t what the hoped for initially. As for the Astros, this is just another attempt to try and save a sinking ship that already had several holes drilled into it when the season started. Astro Grade - D, Padre Grade - B
The Washington Nationals Trade RHP Jon Rauch To The Arizona Diamondbacks For 2B Emilio Bonifacio. This was an outstanding trade by Arizona, who gets a quality setup man in Rauch for a pittance. Bonifacio isn’t a great prospect, more of a speed and defense guy that legs out singles, but has little power or hitting skill. Jim Bowden got outsmarted on this deal. Rauch was worth so much more and would have gotten at a pair of prospects that were better than Bonifacio from any other contender, such as Boston or Tampa Bay. This trade could get Bowden fired. Snake Grade - A, National Grade - D-
The San Francisco Giants Trade 2B Ray Durham To The Milwaukee Brewers For LHP Steve Hammond and OF Darren Ford. This was a fairly solid trade for both sides. The Giants get rid of a player that wasn’t helping them really, in the grand scheme of things, and get something of value, even if it’s a fourth outfielder in Ford and a future middle reliever in Hammond. As for the Brewers, they get some insurance in the event that Rickie Weeks continues to disappoint. I understand the allure of tools and all, but really, Weeks has been a collosal disappointment since he came up. Giant Grade - B, Brewer Grade - B
And, just for laughs, here are my toughts on two of the big three pitching trades that went down.
The Philles Acquire Joe Blanton From Oakland For Three Prospects. The Phillies needed another pitcher, but to be quite frank, Blanton wasn’t all that hot and they overpaid slightly. Of the three prospects they acquired, the only real one of consequence is Adrian Cardenas, a solid second baseman offensively that will likely be Eric Chavez’s successor at the hot corner. Josh Outman, a left hander, is kind of a lefty specialist right now that could evolve into a quality middle reliever. Then again, I was wrong about Greg Smith, who has been rather successful for Oakland thus far. Overall, it’s a quality trade that makes up for the next one… Philly Grade - C, Oakland Grade - A-.
The Cubs Acquire Chad Gaudin and Rich Harden From Oakland For Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, and Josh Donaldson. This trade I found out with my buddy in Chicago and it made us both go “Wow.” Oakland could have gotten more. Gallagher is the best prospect of the bunch and is essentially Gaudin, but younger. Patterson is looking more and more likely the next Mark DeRosa and Matt Murton finally gets a chance to start (and his jerseys at the Cub gift show were marked down to $70). Donaldson is the wild card prospect, but is thus far looking like the next Brad Ausmus. Good job for the Cubs by acquiring Harden, who while delicate is still good, for their pocket change. Cub Grade - A, Oakland Grade - C.
July 1, 2008 at 1:13 pm · Filed under AL Central, AL East, AL West, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Eric Bedard, Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Matt Murton, NL Central, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
There is some thought put into this in terms of players traded, so here me out before I get flamed.
The Brewers Get: LHP C.C. Sabathia
The Indians Get: 1B Prince Fielder, SS Alcedes Escobar
Okay, put down the knives! Let me explain.
The Brewers are nearing arbitration with Fielder, who has shown no interest in a contract extension with Milwaukee. Complicating matters is Scott Boras, who is likely hard at work on finding vague quotes, Hall of Fame comparisons, and any other things to fill a thick, leather bound tome to be passed around at the 2011 Winter Meetings.
Complicating matters is the fact that Brewers already have a stable of potential replacements in the organization. Ryan Braun isn’t great out in left field, and could be moved to first if need be. Even if you’re not thrilled about that option, you have two first baseman types in the minors. The first, Matt Gamel, shows great pop, but is a terrible third baseman that will need to move to first eventually. The other, left fielder Matt LaPorta, is ready to play in the majors now, and could be promoted to fill in Fielder’s current role.
As for the Indians, they would gain a solid run producer for the next three years, allowing them to replace Ryan Garko at first with Fielder. The inclusion of Escobar, an all glove, some bat shortstop, would allow the Indians to move Jhonny Peralta to third base, preparing them for the depature of Casey Blake.
If the Indians really want to be sticklers, a Player To Be Named could be added in there, but not much else. In fact, this may be the best they could do. Of the teams six games or so from their division lead, we can eliminate the three NL Central Teams (White Sox, Tigers and Twins) because of the unlikelyhood of the Indians dealing within the division, plus because of the states of the White Sox and Tigers’ farm systems. On that note, we can also eliminate the New York Teams and Giants, though if the Giants offered up Matt Cain, I’m sure the Indians would listen.
That leaves Boston, Oakland, Both LA Teams, Texas, Milwaukee, The Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, Cardinals and Diamondbacks. 11 teams. From that bunch, the Angels, Marlins and Athletics can be eliminated (all three are looking for offense.) Arizona seems more likely to add an impact bat instead of a pitcher as well, plus they themselves have enough depth in the major league rotation with Webb/Haren/Johnson/Owings/Davis. The team on that list with arguably the best farm system, the Rangers, are also likely out. If the Rangers make a move, it would be for more prospects or for an established pitcher that is under club control for several years (there’s an arguement for a Matt Cain trade here.)
That leaves six teams:
- Boston - The top contender remaining with a good farm system now that Texas is eliminated under this scenario. You could begin around Michael Bowden, Boston’s top pitching prospect now named Clay Buchholz, and work from there. I’d push for Jason Place, a slugging centerfielder who will likely have to move to right field as he develops. You could try to ask for Jed Lowrie, though I don’t think that the Red Sox would be willing to do it. Asking for Brandon Moss might work, though he’s a bit stretched as an everyday player. All in all, Boston has the best package of talent available, should they choose to deal. They may just choose to stand pat and allow Bartolo Colon and Buchholz to help them down the stretch, which would be a big blow to any Indians chance for a deal.
- Dodgers - Hard to see a fit here, considering that Clayton Kershaw is likely to be blocked from being a part of a deal. The Dodgers could try to put together a package around Matt Kemp, who could play right for the Indians right now. They have enough lower level prospects to offer to make a potential three for one deal, which would be a solid one, especially if one of the prospects was their catching jewel, Carlos Santana.
- Brewers - Already stated.
- Phillies - Philly has relatively few prospects to deal. They could offer Carlos Carrasco, their top pitcher, and Adrian Cardenas, their top positional prospect (slugging second baseman). Aside from that, there’s not a whole lot to work for, and besides, the Phillies are more likely to go after a pitcher that is more controllable for more years, such as Eric Bedard, who could perhaps come cheaper.
- Cubs - The Cubs have little to work with in terms of impact prospects, as they’ve done a rather poor job of stocking their organization in the past few years. Donald Veal has the Dontrelle Willis starting kit, he just lacks command. From there, Jose Ceda could be ready to close next year. After that, what the hell else can you do? You could try and toss in Tyler Colvin and Matt Murton, both outfielders, and maybe a PTBNL, but beyond that, you might be better waiting for other stuff to open up.
- Cardinals - St. Louis wouldn’t mind another top starting pitcher to go with Adam Wainwright, and they do have some prospect depth to deal from. They could offer their top prospect, Colby Rasmus, a centerfielder with star potential, as well as Chris Duncan, and their top catching prospect Brian Anderson. Beyond that, there’s not much more you could offer of interest. The Redbird’s system is deeper, but lacks a lot of upside.
So there you have it. Fielder and change might be enough to convince the Indians to go for it. In fact, Fielder alone would be better than any draft pick that the Indians could make (their history isn’t very promising, I’ll discuss that at a later date.) If you wanted quantity over quality, you could go with the Cubs offer. However, more likely, the Indians will go with the best offer, which may be more or less than what I’ve put out.